Table 1. A priori hypothesis table of cancer drug classification.
| Drug groups | Hypothesis | Explanation | Drugs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group 1: Rejected by NICE for all indication(s) considered pre-CDF | Relative to pre-CDF prescribing levels, prescribing will increase faster in England compared with Wales following the CDF | Increased prescribing in England since drugs that were previously declined on cost-effectiveness grounds can now be prescribed | Bevacizumab Sorafenib |
| Group 2: Mixed recommended and rejection decisions by NICE for differing indications pre-CDF | Relative to pre-CDF prescribing levels, prescribing will increase faster in England compared with Wales following the CDF | Increased prescribing in England for indications where the drug was previously declined on cost-effectiveness grounds | Imatinib Cetuximab Sunitinib |
| Group 3: Recommended by NICE for all indications considered pre-CDF | Relative to pre-CDF prescribing levels, prescribing will not increase faster in England compared with Wales following the CDF | No difference between English and Welsh prescribing for recommended drugs since these drugs could already be accessed through NHS funding pre-CDF | Rituximab Capecitabine Lenalidomide PLDH Bortezomib |
| Group 4: No NICE appraisal decision pre- CDF | Relative to pre-CDF prescribing levels, prescribing will increase faster in England compared with Wales following the CDF | Drugs without NICE decisions can now be accessed via the CDF leading to increased prescribing in England, but not in Wales | Lapatinib Panitumumab |
| Group 5. Drugs launched immediately prior to or after the CDF | Prescribing for these drugs will increase faster in England compared with Wales | New drugs may be more rapidly adopted in England following the introduction of the Cancer Drugs Fund, compared with Wales where prescribing increases may be delayed pending NICE recommendation. | Abiraterone Bendamustine Pazopanib |
Abbreviations: CDF=Cancer Drugs Fund; NHS= National Health Service; NICE=National Institute for Health and Care Excellence; PLDH=pegylated liposomal doxorubicin hydrochloride.