Table 2.
Summary OR, Population Attributable Fraction, and Preventable Cases of Congenital Heart Defects
| Congenital heart defect | Summary OR (95% CrI)b | Attributable fraction (%) (95% UI)c | Annual preventable number of CHD (95% UI)a | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Elimination of risk associated with PGDM | 50% Reduction in risk associated with PGDMd | |||
| All congenital heart defects | 3.8 (3.0, 4.9) | 8.3 (5.6, 11.8) | 2,670 (1,795, 3,795) | 1,335 (900, 1,900) |
| Non-Hispanic white | 7.1 (4.2, 11.4) | 1,480 (880, 2,385) | 740 (440, 1,195) | |
| Non-Hispanic black | 11.5 (7.4, 17.1) | 535 (340, 800) | 270 (170, 400) | |
| Hispanic | 9.5 (5.3, 16.2) | 795 (440, 1,370) | 400 (220, 685) | |
| Atrioventricular septal defects | 10.6 (4.7, 20.9) | 23.4 (10.6, 40.0) | 435 (195, 745) | 220 (100, 375) |
| Non-Hispanic white | 20.4 (8.5, 38.1) | 180 (70, 355) | 90 (35, 180) | |
| Non-Hispanic black | 30.6 (14.1, 49.8) | 90 (40, 155) | 45 (20, 80) | |
| Hispanic | 26.1 (11.1, 46.5) | 50 (15, 105) | 25 (20, 80) | |
| Coarctation of the aorta | 3.7 (1.7, 7.4) | 7.9 (2.1, 17.6) | 140 (35, 315) | 70 (20, 160) |
| Non-Hispanic white | 6.7 (1.8, 15.8) | 80 (20, 195) | 40 (10, 100) | |
| Non-Hispanic black | 11.0 (2.9, 24.1) | 25 (5, 60) | 15 (5, 30) | |
| Hispanic | 8.9 (2.4, 21.8) | 30 (5, 75) | 15 (5, 40) | |
| Hypoplastic left heart syndrome | 3.7 (1.5, 8.9) | 8.0 (1.6, 20.4) | 75 (15, 185) | 40 (10, 95) |
| Non-Hispanic white | 6.9 (1.3, 18.8) | 30 (55, 85) | 15 (5, 45) | |
| Non-Hispanic black | 11.2 (2.2, 27.5) | 15 (5, 45) | 10 (5, 25) | |
| Hispanic | 9.1 (1.7, 24.6) | 15 (0, 50) | 10 (0, 25) | |
| Tetralogy of Fallot | 6.5 (3.3, 11.8) | 14.8 (6.6, 26.3) | 230 (105, 415) | 115 (55, 210) |
| Non-Hispanic white | 12.8 (5.4, 24.4) | 125 (50, 250) | 60 (25, 125) | |
| Non-Hispanic black | 20.0 (8.9, 34.7) | 65 (30, 115) | 35 (15, 60) | |
| Hispanic | 16.7 (7.0, 32.0) | 50 (20, 115) | 25 (10, 60) | |
| Transposition of the great arteries | 4.8 (2.7, 8.3) | 10.9 (5.1, 19.8) | 130 (60, 235) | 65 (30, 120) |
| Non-Hispanic white | 9.4 (4.0, 18.6) | 45 (15, 100) | 25 (10, 50) | |
| Non-Hispanic black | 15.0 (6.8, 27.0) | 20 (10, 40) | 10 (5, 20) | |
| Hispanic | 12.4 (5.2, 24.9) | 30 (10, 65) | 15 (5, 35) | |
a
All estimates and uncertainty intervals rounded to nearest multiple of five.
b
Posterior estimates for the summary OR estimated using Bayesian meta-analyses.
c
Attributable fraction estimated based on race-specific estimates of the prevalence of diabetes. Uncertainty intervals estimated via Monte Carlo sampling
d
Estimated by multiplying the attributable fraction by half of the estimated prevalence.
CHD, congenital heart defect; CrI, credible interval; PGDM, pregestational diabetes mellitus; UI, uncertainty interval.