. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2015 Jun 4.

Published in final edited form as: Thorax. 2013 Dec 17;69(7):616–622. doi: 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2013-204155

Table 3.

Net benefit-harm index for treatment of COPD with roflumilast

Net benefit-harm index^* per 10,000 patients treated over 1 year by patient profiles

Type of analysis

Patients' projected 1-year risk of having ≥1 moderate or severe COPD exacerbation

30%

60%

90%

Men

Women

Men

Women

Men

Women

Age
<65

Age
≥65

Age
<65

Age
≥65

Age
<65

Age
≥65

Age
<65

Age
≥65

Age
<65

Age
≥65

Age
<65

Age
≥65

Analysis I:
Equal weights

−3221
(0.0%)^†

−3192
(0.0%)

−3246
(0.0%)

−3225
(0.0%)

−3125
(0.0%)

−3097
(0.0%)

−3150
(0.0%)

−3129
(0.0%)

−3088
(0.0%)

−3059
(0.0%)

−3112
(0.0%)

−3092
(0.0%)

Analysis II:
Weights based on
importance of outcomes

−477
(0.0%)

−473
(0.0%)

−481
(0.0%)

−478
(0.0%)

−430
(0.0%)

−426
(0.0%)

−433
(0.0%)

−430
(0.0%)

−411
(0.0%)

−407
(0.0%)

−414
(0.0%)

−411
(0.0%)

Analysis III (main analysis):
Weights based on importance and
co-occurrence of harm outcomes

−195
(0.0%)

−194
(0.0%)

−197
(0.0%)

−196
(0.0%)

−148
(0.0%)

−146
(0.0%)

−149
(0.0%)

−148
(0.0%)

−129
(0.0%)

−127
(0.0%)

−130
(0.0%)

−129
(0.0%)

Patients' projected 1-year risk of having ≥1 severe COPD exacerbation

10%

20%

30%

Men

Women

Men

Women

Men

Women

Age
<65

Age
≥65

Age
<65

Age
≥65

Age
<65

Age
≥65

Age
<65

Age
≥65

Age
<65

Age
≥65

Age
<65

Age
≥65

Sensitivity analysis focusing on
severe exacerbations

−140
(0.0%)

−139
(0.0%)

−141
(0.0%)

−140
(0.0%)

−16
(37.6%)

−16
(37.5%)

−16
(37.0%)

−16
(37.1%)

85
(86.9%)

85
(87.0%)

86
(86.9%)

85
(87.0%)

Abbreviations: COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Negative values of the index = roflumilast is harmful (harms outweigh benefits); positive values of the index = roflumilast is beneficial (benefits outweigh harms).

^†

The numbers in parentheses is the probability that the index is positive (the probability that roflumilast is beneficial).