Fig. 2.

Monthly crime-related costs (top panel), monthly avoided costs when compared to relapse (middle panel) and monthly avoided cost percentages when compared to relapse (bottom panel) were estimated from average marginal effects (AME) derived from a two-part multiple regression model. Results presented are for each mutually exclusive health state for all individuals (2232 observations) as well as stratified by stimulant use intensity (672 observations for daily stimulant users; 887 observations for non-daily stimulant users; 673 observations for stimulant non-users). Each point (middle panel) represents the estimated avoided costs and the error bars represent the95% confidence interval for each point. Points where the confidence interval does not include $0 reflect statistically significant amounts equivalent to those associated with a p-value <0.05. Mutually exclusive health states are: (i) MMT with high effectiveness (current MMT receipt and no illicit opioid use in the last six months); (ii) MMT with low effectiveness (defined as current MMT receipt with illicit opioid use in the last six months); (iii) opioid abstinence (defined as no current MMT receipt and no illicit opioid use in the last six months); or (iv) relapse (defined as no current MMT receipt with illicit opioid use in the last six months).