Table 5a.
Changes in DALYs (left) and deaths (right) in England & Wales (age 15+) if adopting travel patterns from comparison areas (based on absolute travel times) (Median (95% credible interval)). (See Table 5b for adopting relative travel time distribution across modes).
| Baseline DALYs in England & Wales | Adopted travel pattern from |
Baseline deaths in England & Wales | Adopted travel pattern from |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | Netherlands | California | Switzerland | Netherlands | California | |||
| Males | ||||||||
| Stroke | 201,995 | − 21,310 (− 33,140 to − 11,870) | − 18,090 (− 29,380 to − 9480) | 3365 (2026 to 4851) | 14,047 | − 1525 (− 2344 to − 862) | − 1121 (− 1795 to − 600) | 226 (134 to 335) |
| Ischemic heart disease | 620,598 | − 63,400 (− 99,070 to − 35,100) | − 57,950 (− 94,640 to − 30,150) | 10,220 (6150 to 14,710) | 38,329 | − 4,122 (− 6376 to − 2312) | − 3293 (− 5314 to − 1743) | 629 (377 to 917) |
| Other cardiovascular and circulatory diseases | 171,381 | − 17,770 (− 27,730 to − 9856) | − 15,800 (− 25,780 to − 8224) | 2877 (1735 to 4134) | 10,388 | − 1127 (− 1741 to − 633) | − 875 (− 1408 to − 465) | 171 (102 to 250) |
| Type-2 diabetes | 64,498 | − 6546 (− 10,630 to − 3177) | − 6145 (− 10,380 to − 2838) | 1091 (546 to 1707) | 1850 | − 207 (− 333 to − 102) | − 164 (− 272 to − 77) | 32 (16 to 50) |
| Colon cancer | 76,689 | − 3884 (− 7299 to − 738) | − 3774 (− 7126 to − 722) | 530 (92 to 1073) | 4375 | − 238 (− 446 to − 46) | − 208 (− 389 to − 40) | 32 (5 to 65) |
| Breast cancer | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Dementia and Alzheimer's disease | 89,714 | − 7163 (− 11,150 to − 3428) | − 5571 (− 8655 to − 2671) | 918 (380 to 1682) | 5366 | − 431 (− 672 to − 206) | − 303 (− 471 to − 146) | 51 (20 to 98) |
| Depression | 137,704 | − 7715 (− 20,770 to − 1319) | − 8929 (− 24,180 to − 1416) | 1168 (225 to 3109) | – | – | – | – |
| Total | 1,362,578 | − 127,800 (− 196,500 to − 75,850) | − 116,300 (− 188,800 to − 63,700) | 20,160 (13,500 to 27,460) | 74,357 | − 7651 (− 11,420 to − 4611) | − 5963 (− 9290 to − 3400) | 1140 (718 to 1637) |
| Females | ||||||||
| Stroke | 226,967 | − 24,630 (− 37,100 to − 14,230) | − 15,950 (− 23,920 to − 9249) | 2421 (1438 to 3568) | 22,603 | − 2506 (− 3711 to − 1472) | − 1191 (− 1699 to − 717) | 154 (76 to 263) |
| Ischemic heart disease | 337,852 | − 36,580 (− 55,360 to − 21,050) | − 25,730 (− 38,990 to − 14,790) | 3933 (2368 to 5685) | 31,224 | − 3456 (− 5135 to − 2023) | − 1786 (− 2574 to − 1066) | 239 (128 to 389) |
| Other cardiovascular and circulatory diseases | 149,553 | − 16,040 (− 24,320 to − 9215) | − 11,440 (− 17,420 to − 6537) | 1811 (1093 to 2606) | 12,442 | − 1375 (− 2043 to − 805) | − 710 (− 1024 to − 424) | 96 (52 to 156) |
| Type-2 diabetes | 56,938 | − 6199 (− 9903 to − 3067) | − 5075 (− 8239 to − 2471) | 829 (423 to 1260) | 1977 | − 226 (− 354 to − 115) | − 125 (− 191 to − 64) | 17 (8 to 29) |
| Colon cancer | 58,147 | − 2140 (− 4100 to − 294) | − 1804 (− 3470 to − 248) | 238 (31 to 484) | 3,850 | − 151 (− 287 to − 21) | − 99 (− 189 to − 14) | 12 (1 to 26) |
| Breast cancer | 201,757 | − 8966 (− 17,870 to − 3637) | − 8514 (− 17,530 to − 3262) | 1078 (527 to 1877) | 9096 | − 429 (− 819 to − 185) | − 336 (− 658 to − 139) | 40 (21 to 65) |
| Dementia and Alzheimer's disease | 151,156 | − 12,450 (− 19,590 to − 5902) | − 6693 (− 10,770 to − 3114) | 718 (247 to 1577) | 11,873 | − 1000 (− 1586 to − 471) | − 433 (− 729 to − 192) | 34 (6 to 95) |
| Depression | 230,906 | − 16,030 (− 42,830 to − 2829) | − 17,010 (− 45,680 to − 2871) | 2899 (563 to 7611) | – | – | – | – |
| Total | 1,413,276 | − 123,000 (− 188,600 to − 76,930) | − 92,230 (− 148,900 to − 55,040) | 13,930 (9748 to 18,840) | 93,067 | − 9144 (− 12,910 to − 5947) | − 4678 (− 6417 to − 3121) | 592 (343 to 948) |
| Total (males + females) | 2,775,854 | −250,800 (−384,100 to −153,300) | −208,500 (−336,900 to −119,200) | 34,090 (23,630 to 45,210) | 167,423 | −16,800 (−24,320 to −10,580) | −10,640 (−15,660 to −6595) | 1732 (1072 to 2575) |