Fig. 2.

Predicted warming impacts on wheat yields under alternative uniform temperature changes across the entire Fall−Winter−Spring growing season. Impacts are reported as the percentage change in yield relative to historical climate. Each two-bar cluster shows estimates for a given scenario across different regression model specifications. The preferred model (SI Appendix, Table S4, column 3) estimates the warming effects using all temperature variables, whereas the alternative holds all effects from the Freeze Days variables at zero. Bars show 95% confidence intervals using SEs clustered by year and variety.