Table 1.

Estimates of excess deceased blacks (1970–2004), hypothetical survivors and votes lost (2004)

State	Total Black Excess Deceased (1970–2004)	Hypothetical Black Survivors to 2004	Voting-age Hypothetical Black Survivors to 2004	Voting-age Hypothetical Survivors as Percent of Black VAP	Total Black Votes Lost	Black Votes Lost for Kerry	Votes Lost for Kerry as Percent of Total Votes Lost	Black Votes Lost for Bush	Votes Lost for Bush as Percent of Total Votes Lost	Votes Lost as Percent of Total Black Votes
New York	256,004	193,672	183,654	8.7	88,657	77,238	87.1	11,419	12.9	9.5
Illinois	191,485	140,224	130,406	10.0	55,945	50,459	90.2	5,486	9.8	10.3
Florida	170,230	107,659	99,705	5.6	54,110	44,364	82.0	9,746	18.0	6.2
California	162,482	120,635	112,673	6.8	59,268	48,841	82.4	10,427	17.6	8.2
Texas	158,970	106,493	100,065	5.6	65,143	56,386	86.6	8,757	13.4	7.3
Georgia	154,380	102,343	95,052	5.3	47,286	39,728	84.0	7,558	16.0	5.8
North Carolina	142,957	92,549	86,960	6.7	59,292	49,271	83.1	10,021	16.9	6.8
Pennsylvania	132,674	90,276	84,579	9.6	71,932	62,099	86.3	9,833	13.7	9.8
Michigan	128,294	97,609	90,554	9.1	59,691	54,239	90.9	5,452	9.1	9.8
Louisiana	112,055	76,624	71,700	7.2	42,037	37,016	88.1	5,021	11.9	8.1
Virginia	107,365	67,084	62,771	6.0	56,231	50,205	89.3	6,026	10.7	8.3
New Jersey	103,858	80,155	75,049	9.1	54,188	44,925	82.9	9,263	17.1	10.5
South Carolina	101,121	65,970	62,175	7.3	35,223	29,599	84.0	5,624	16.0	7.5
Ohio	100,113	68,586	63,685	6.8	37,365	30,659	82.1	6,706	17.9	6.9
Maryland	99,806	73,179	68,118	6.0	41,133	36,539	88.8	4,594	11.2	7.4
Alabama	90,602	58,313	54,778	6.7	34,753	31,380	90.3	3,373	9.7	7.5
Tennessee	75,011	45,494	41,774	6.2	26,181	22,899	87.5	3,282	12.5	8.1
D.C.	70,120	48,012	46,425	18.5	21,501	20,735	96.4	766	3.6	17.6
Mississippi	68,700	49,031	45,604	6.4	29,990	27,378	91.3	2,612	8.7	7.8
Missouri	57,089	37,961	35,331	7.8	18,933	17,205	90.9	1,728	9.1	9.0
Indiana	38,192	26,732	24,663	6.7	13,997	12,696	90.7	1,301	9.3	8.2
Arkansas	32,396	20,396	19,254	6.7	11,389	9,551	83.9	1,838	16.1	7.2
Kentucky	22,080	11,622	10,974	5.0	9,565	8,370	87.5	1,195	12.5	6.4
Connecticut	20,125	16,068	14,902	6.5	6,089	5,438	89.3	651	10.7	6.7
Massachusetts	16,981	13,999	12,889	4.7	7,304	6,949	95.1	355	4.9	6.3
Wisconsin	16,511	13,433	11,751	5.6	8,915	7,499	84.1	1,416	15.9	6.1
Oklahoma	14,568	9,473	8,756	4.6	6,853	5,003	73.0	1,850	27.0	5.5
Delaware	10,460	6,984	6,437	5.6	5,054	4,382	86.7	672	13.3	6.8
Washington	8,274	6,204	5,602	3.5	2,705	2,073	76.6	632	23.4	4.8
Arizona	7,159	5,024	4,440	3.3	2,671	2,085	78.1	586	21.9	5.5
Colorado	7,139	5,518	4,852	3.7	4,759	3,770	79.2	989	20.8	6.4
Minnesota	5,877	5,116	4,353	3.1	3,694	3,176	86.0	518	14.0	4.2
Nevada	3,973	3,490	3,038	2.6	1,852	1,606	86.7	246	13.3	3.2
Total	2,687,051	1,865,928	1,742,969	7.0	1,043,706	903,763	86.6	139,943	13.4	7.9