Table 1. Parameters of the Ebola-related news media contagion model of Eq 2 or Eq 3 (as appropriate to the sample), fit to the Ebola-related Google searches and tweets.
N | f | β*f | 1/γ (days) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tweets: keyword “Ebola” | 251,000 | 0.0012 [0.0011, 0.0032] | 180 [140, 210] | - |
Tweets: keywords “Ebola” and “symptoms” | 2,350 | 1e−05 [9.7e−06,2.8e−05] | 1.7 [1.3,2.2] | - |
Google searches: “Ebola” | 26,100,000 | 0.12 [0.097,0.18] | 22000 [17000, 31000] | 0.7 [0.3,3.1] |
Google searches: “Ebola symptoms” | 4,240,000 | 0.017 [0.015,0.022] | 4000 [3200, 5100] | 0.7 [0.3,1.9] |
Google searches: “Do I have Ebola” | 22,200 | 8.8e−05 [7.6e−05,0.00014] | 25 [16, 71] | 3.8 [1.4,14.3] |
The parameter f is the initial fraction of the population susceptible to news media induced Ebola interest or panic (as manifested by the particular Ebola-related Internet searches or tweets in our samples). The parameter β is the transmission rate, and 1/γ is the average time, in days between an individual viewing an Ebola-related news video, and performing an Ebola-related Google search or tweet. The average number of particular Internet searches or tweets in our samples inspired by a single news video in the initial susceptible population is fβ. The numbers in the square brackets represent the 95% confidence intervals.