Table 5. Model PUE predictions.

Data and model predictions of the probability of ultimate extinction (PUE). The high-variance model predicts PUE within the 95% confidence intervals of the model for all four treatments. The original model fails to do this in all four cases.

Treatment	PUE, P(λT < 0)
	Data (95% CI)	Poisson model	High-variance model
Conway, high light	0.17 (0.065, 0.28)	0.01	0.17
Conway, low light	0.35 (0.21, 0.48)	0.53	0.44
Hamilton, high light	0.14 (0.071, 0.23)	0.00	0.14
Hamilton, low light	0.10 (0.043, 0.17)	0.01	0.17