Table 4. AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios of baseline liver histology, HVPG and non-invasive fibrosis biomarkers to predict clinical outcomes.
| Fibrosis stage | HVPG | APRI | FIB-4 | NAFLD fibrosis score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUC±SE (95% CI) | 0.85±0.04 (0.76–0.93) | 0.81±0.06 (0.70–0.91) | 0.89±0.03 (0.82–0.96) | 0.89±0.03 (0.83–0.95) | 0.79±0.06 (0.69–0.91) |
| Accuracy (%) | 75.9 | 86.1 | 86 | 86 | 84.1 |
| Sensitivity | 81.3 | 62.5 | 50 | 56.3 | 50 |
| Specificity | 75 | 90.2 | 92.3 | 91.2 | 90.1 |
| PPV | 36.1 | 52.6 | 50 | 52.9 | 47 |
| NPV | 95.8 | 93.3 | 92.3 | 92.2 | 91.1 |
| LR+ | 3.25 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 5.06 |
| LR- | 0.25 | 0.42 | 0.54 | 0.48 | 0.55 |
Legend: HVPG, hepatic venous pressure gradient; APRI, AST-to-Platelet Ratio; NAFLD, nonalcoholic fatty liver; AUC, area under the curve; SE, standard error; CI, confidence interval; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; LR, likelihood ratio. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV and LR are computed based on the cut-off values adopted in the multivariate analysis: histologic fibrosis F3-F4, HVPG>10, APRI≥1.5, FIB-4>3.25, NAFLD fibrosis score>0.676.