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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2016 Jul 1.
Published in final edited form as: Spine J. 2015 Mar 13;15(7):1577–1586. doi: 10.1016/j.spinee.2015.03.003

Table 4.

Proportion of Patients with Chronic Pain in Each Risk Group and Likelihood Ratios for Correct Risk Classification.

Risk group (total N) Number of Patients Percentage with chronic back pain (95% CI) Likelihood ratio (95% CI)
with chronic back pain without chronic back pain
6 month model (509) 67 442
 Low risk (score < - 4) 9 230 3.8 (1.7 – 7.0) 0.26 (0.14 – 0.48)
 Moderate risk (score -4 to 7) 27 165 14.1 (9.5 – 19.8) 1.1 (0.79 – 1.5)
 High risk (score ≥8) 31 47 39.7 (28.8 – 51.5) 4.4 (3.0 – 6.3)
2 year model (440) 82 358
 Low risk (score < - 4) 22 194 10.1% (6.49–15.0) 0.50 (0.34–0.72)
 Moderate risk (score -4 to 7) 32 125 20.4% (14.4–27.5) 1.12 (0.82–1.52)
 High risk (score ≥8) 28 39 41.8% (29.8–54.5) 3.14 (2.06–4.78)