Fig. 3.
Changes in natural hazard intensity across codeveloped scenarios of future ecosystem change in four case studies of flood, wildfire, sea storm, and drought in the Southern Cape of South Africa. Changes in intensity are measured for flood and sea storm as increases in daily flows (m3) and wave run-up height (m) compared with flows and run-up height found during an existing 1:100-y event. Changes in wildfire intensity are measured as increases in fireline intensity (kW⋅m–1) whereas drought intensity is measured as decreases in monthly flows (million m3) of droughts at 70% and 90% probability of exceedance on the flow duration curve (defined here as low flows and extreme low flows, respectively). Changes in intensity are extracted from ref. 56 and reflected for synthesis purposes as a percentage of the baseline scenario intensity using a logarithmic scale. Impacts of a future climate scenario (56) are also depicted.