Table 6.

NHS main study: AUC, BS and −2 log-likelihood (−2LL) values for breast cancer risk prediction of the surrogate model and the true model

	Surrogate Probit Model			Surrogate Logit Model			Surrogate GAM Model		Error-Free Probit Model
Regression Model	AUC	BS	−2LL	AUC	BS	−2LL	AUC	BS	AUC	BS
α-carotene	0.509	0.044	12340.4	0.509	0.044	12340.4	0.500	0.044	0.505	0.046
α-carotene+GS	0.586	0.044	12210.0	0.586	0.044	12209.5	0.585	0.044	0.583	0.043
Alcohol	0.500	0.044	12335.5	0.500	0.044	12335.5	0.521	0.044	0.525	0.046
alcohol+GS	0.588	0.044	12205.7	0.588	0.044	12205	0.588	0.044	0.585	0.041
α-carotene+alcohol	0.522	0.044	12333.9	0.522	0.044	12333.8	0.519	0.044	0.530	0.051
α-carotene+alcohol+GS	0.588	0.044	12205.7	0.588	0.044	12205	0.588	0.044	0.586	0.041