Table 3. Misclassification Table for Longitudinal Predictive Models of Fibrosis Progression and Clinical Outcomes: Internal Validation Cohort.
| Fibrosis Progression | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fibrosis Progressors (N=46) |
Fibrosis Non-Progressors (N=137) |
|||||||
| Cutoff | Predicted Fibrosis Progresson | Predicted No Fibrosis Progression | Predicted Fibrosis Progression | Predicted No Fibrosis Progression | Brier score | NPV | PPV | |
| Random Forest | 0.353 | 39 (84.8%) |
7 (15.2%) |
31 (22.6%) |
106 (77.4%) |
0.208 | 93.8% | 55.7% |
| Boosting | -10.47 | 39 (84.8%) |
7 (15.2%) |
39 (28.5%) |
98 (71.5%) |
0.251 | 93.3% | 50.0% |
| Logistic Regression | -1.19 | 36 (78.3%) |
10 (21.7%) |
35 (25.5%) |
102 (74.5%) |
0.246 | 91.1% | 50.7% |
| Clinical Outcomes | ||||||||
|
Clinical Progressors (N=31) |
Clinical Non-Progressors (N=152) |
|||||||
| Cutoff | Predicted Clinical Progression | Predicted No Clinical Progression | Predicted Clinical Progression | Predicted No Clinical Progression | Brier score | NPV | PPV | |
| Random Forest | 0.291 | 23 (74.2%) |
8 (25.8%) |
34 (22.4%) |
118 (77.6%) |
0.230 | 93.7% | 40.4% |
| Boosting | -12.29 | 25 (80.7%) |
6 (19.3%) |
45 (29.6%) |
107 (70.4%) |
0.279 | 94.7% | 35.7% |
| Logistic Regression | -1.77 | 23 (74.2%) |
8 (25.8%) |
51 (33.6%) |
101 (66.4%) |
0.322 | 92.7% | 31.1% |
NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value.