Table 1.
Observed and Counterfactual Changes in Global Deaths Due to Cardiovascular Diseases, 1990–2013.*
| Disease | Deaths in 1990 | Deaths in 2013 | Percentage Change, 1990–2013 | Deaths Expected (2013 Population, 1990 Population Age Structure, 1990 Death Rates) | Percentage Change from 1990 Due to Population Growth | Deaths Expected (2013 Population, 2013 Population Age Structure, 1990 Death Rates) | Percentage Change from 1990 Due to Population Aging | Percentage Change from 1990 Due to Change in Age-Specific Death Rates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ischemic heart disease | 5,737,483 | 8,139,852 | 41.7 | 7,089,534 | 23.6 | 10,104,606 | 52.5 | −34.4 |
| Ischemic stroke | 2,182,865 | 3,272,924 | 50.2 | 2,652,984 | 21.6 | 4,009,559 | 62.1 | −33.5 |
| Hemorrhagic stroke | 2,401,931 | 3,173,951 | 30.7 | 3,046,620 | 26.8 | 4,475,353 | 59.5 | −55.9 |
| Hypertensive heart disease | 622,148 | 1,068,585 | 74.1 | 804,870 | 29.5 | 1,201,735 | 63.6 | −19.0 |
| Cardiomyopathy and myocarditis | 293,896 | 443,297 | 51.4 | 373,574 | 27.4 | 486,334 | 38.4 | −14.2 |
| Rheumatic heart disease | 373,493 | 275,054 | −26.5 | 493,302 | 31.8 | 653,518 | 42.8 | −101.3 |
| Aortic aneurysm | 99,644 | 151,493 | 52.1 | 133,978 | 34.5 | 172,230 | 38.3 | −20.7 |
| Atrial fibrillation and flutter | 28,916 | 112,209 | 288.1 | 39,136 | 35.4 | 52,484 | 46.2 | 206.5 |
| Endocarditis | 45,053 | 65,036 | 46.3 | 64,331 | 42.2 | 78,714 | 32.0 | −28.8 |
| Peripheral vascular disease | 15,875 | 40,492 | 155.3 | 24,406 | 53.7 | 27,386 | 18.7 | 82.5 |
| Other cardiovascular and circulatory diseases | 478,261 | 554,588 | 15.2 | 638,716 | 33.7 | 852,357 | 44.9 | −63.2 |
| Total | 12,279,565 | 17,297,480 | 40.8 | 15,361,450 | 25.1 | 22,114,276 | 55.0 | −39.3 |
Decomposition6 of the observed number of cardiovascular deaths in 1990 and 2013 was used to calculate the contribution of three explanatory components: growth in the population, aging of the population, and change in the age-, sex-, and cause-specific rate of death. The age-, sex-, and cause-specific rate of death, which in this study is referred to as epidemiologic change, includes all changes in mortality that are not explained by demographic change (the aging or growth of the population) and includes the effect of both change in the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and access to health care. The sum of these three components is equal to the observed change in the total number of deaths.