Table 2.
Patterns of Demographic and Epidemiologic Change in Cardiovascular Mortality.
| Category | Change in Cardiovascular Deaths, 1990–2013 | Effect of Population Growth | Effect of Population Aging | Effect of Age-Specific Cardiovascular Death Rate | Regions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Category 1 — Population growth and aging: Regions with large and continuous increases in the number of cardiovascular deaths due to population growth or aging but little change in age-specific rates of death | Increase | Large (≥20%) | Large (>30%) | Small (decline <30%) | Oceania, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Caribbean |
| Category 2 — Population growth: Regions with increases in deaths due mostly to population growth | Increase | Large (>80%) | Small (<10%) | Small (decline <30%) | Central sub-Saharan Africa, Western sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern sub-Saharan Africa |
| Category 3 — Population aging: Regions in which cardiovascular deaths rose and then fell during the preceding 20 years, resulting in a net increase in deaths due to population aging and only a small decrease in age-specific rates of cardiovascular death | Increase then decrease | Very small (<20%) | Moderate (>20%) | Very small (decline <15%) | Eastern Europe, Central Asia |
| Category 4 — Improved health moderating effect of population aging: Regions in which large increases in the number of cardiovascular deaths due to population aging were moderated by a fall in age-specific rates of death | Increase | Small (<30%) | Very large (>70%) | Large (decline >30%) | High-income Asia–Pacific, East Asia |
| Category 5 — Improved health moderating effect of population growth and aging: Regions with large relative increases in the number of cardiovascular deaths due to both population growth and aging that were moderated by a fall in age-specific rates of death | Increase | Large (>30%) | Large (>30%) | Large (decline >30%) | Central Latin America, Tropical Latin America, Andean Latin America, Southern sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa and Middle East |
| Category 6 — Improved health exceeding effect of population growth and aging: Regions in which large declines in age-specific cardiovascular death rates have led to only small increases or even a decline in the number of cardiovascular deaths despite the large effects of an aging population | Small increase or decrease | Small (<40%) | Large (>30%) | Large (decline >30%) | Southern Latin America, Australasia, high-income North America, Central Europe, Western Europe |