Extended Data Figure 2. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC), precision-recall (PR) curves.

a, ROC of age-14 binge drinking classification, with age-14 nicotine included (Analysis 1). b, PR of age-14 binge drinking classification, with age-14 nicotine included (Analysis 1). c, ROC of age-14 binge drinking external generalization, with age-14 nicotine included (Analysis 6). AUC = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.59–0.76). At the optimum point in the AUC curve, 93% of binge drinkers and 34% of non-binge drinkers were correctly classified, significantly better than chance (P = 0.035), given a base rate of 24% non-binge drinkers. d, PR of age-14 binge drinking external generalization, with age-14 nicotine included (Analysis 6). At the maximum F-score value, this corresponds to a precision rate of 47% and a recall rate of 54%. e, ROC of age-14 binge drinking classification, with age-14 nicotine excluded (Analysis 2). f, PR of age-14 binge drinking classification, with age-14 nicotine excluded (Analysis 2). g, ROC of age-14 binge drinking external generalization, with age-14 nicotine excluded (Analysis 7). AUC = 0.80, 95% CI 0.73–0.85. At the optimum point in the AUC curve, 95% of binge drinkers and 34% of non-binge drinkers were correctly classified, significantly better than chance (P = 0.016), given a base rate of 24% non-binge drinkers. h, PR of age-14 binge drinking external generalization, with age-14 nicotine excluded (Analysis 7). At the maximumF-score value, this corresponds to a precision rate of 56% and a recall rate of 57%. i, ROC of age-16 binge drinking classification (Analysis 8). j, PR of age-16 binge drinking classification (Analysis 8). k, ROC of age-14 binge drinking external generalization (Analysis 11). l, PR of 14-year-old binge drinking external generalization (Analysis 11). AUC, area under the curve. CI, confidence interval.