Table 3.
Model estimates
| Parameter | Value | Absolute numbers | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| No vaccination | |||
| Working mothers with a 1st child | 75 | ||
| % of mothers with a 1st child having diarrhoea 1st year | 20% | 75×20%=15 | |
| Average duration (days) for being absent for diarrhoea in a child | 5 | 15×5=75 | |
| Average number of days absent/woman | 75/75=1 | 1 | |
| Vaccination | |||
| Working mothers with a 1st child | 75 | ||
| % of mothers with a vaccinated child | 85% | 75×85%=64 | |
| % of mothers with no vaccinated child | (1–85%)=15% | 75×15%=11 | |
| Vaccine efficacy against diarrhoea | 85% | ||
| % of mothers with a vaccinated child still having diarrhoea | 20%×(100%–85%)=3% | 64×3%=2 | |
| % of mothers with an unvaccinated child still having diarrhoea (Rest) | 20% | 11×20%=2 | |
| Average duration (days) for being absent for diarrhoea in a child | 5 | 4×5=20 | |
| Average number of days absent/woman | 20/75=0.27 | 0.27 | |
| Gain in working days avoided/woman after vaccination 1st year | (1–0.27)=0.73 | ||
| Sensitivity analysis | |||
| Proportion of children with diarrhoea is lower because of the vaccine's herd effect in the Rest group | 10% instead 20% | 11×10%=1 | |
| Average duration (days) for being absent for diarrhoea in a child | 3×5=15 | ||
| Average number of days absent/woman | 15/75=0.20 | 0.20 | |
| Gain in working days avoided/woman after vaccination 1st year | (1–0.20)=0.80 | ||