Table 1.

Model inputs: key probabilities, utilities, and costs. For further detail, please see Appendix Table 1(adapted from (15)).

Annual probabilities	Base Case Estimate (SD*)	Range used in Sensitivity Analysis
Disease-related probabilities
Disease-related probabilities: Low-risk prostate cancer
Biochemical recurrence after treatment (7-9)	0.01 (year 1; lifetime risk 0.45)	Not varied
Progression from biochemical recurrence to metastatic disease (36)	0.05	Not varied
Death of prostate cancer after development of metastatic disease (37)	0.22	Not varied
Disease-related probabilities: Active surveillance
Progressing to Gleason 7 disease(12,22,23,26)	0.023(0.006)	0.012-0.046
Other progression (PSA, DRE)(12, 20-26)	0.052(0.013)	0.026-0.104
Electing treatment	0.018(0.005)	0.009-0.036
Development of metastatic disease prior to treatment	.00003**	Not varied
Disease-related probabilities: Watchful waiting
Progression to treatment (13)	0.02 (0.005)	0.01-0.04
Disease-related probabilities: Intermediate- risk prostate cancer (Gleason≥7)
Biochemical recurrence after treatment(19)	0.01 (year 1; lifetime risk 0.60)	Not varied
Progression from biochemical recurrence to metastatic disease(36)	0.05	Not varied
Health State	Utility (SD)	Range
Prostate Cancer
Active Surveillance(15,38)	0.83(0.24)	0.42-1
Watchful Waiting(38)	0.83(0.24)	0.42-1
Biochemical recurrence	0.68(0.26)	Not varied
Metastatic cancer	0.12(0.18)	Not varied
Post treatment without side effects(39)	0.80(0.24)	0.4-1
Costs	Base Case Estimate ($)	50%-200% used for all costs
Direct Costs***
Surveillance Costs
Physician visit with PSA	140
Incremental cost of biopsy with prophylactic antibiotics	688
PSA only	29
Bone scan	320
Procedure Costs
Radical prostatectomy (open)	11,856
IMRT	23,817
Brachytherapy	11,511
Androgen Deprivation Therapy	9,090
Short-term Adverse Effects and Complications
Minor complications of radical prostatectomy	8259
Major complications of radical prostatectomy	19687
Septicemia after biopsy	13355
Urinary symptoms of treatment	221
Acute urinary retention (brachytherapy)	210
Bowel symptoms of treatment	1306
Urethral stricture (radical prostatectomy)	587
Long-term Adverse Effects and Symptoms
Incontinence: including one-time costs	698
Incontinence: recurrent costs	503
Bowel effects: including one-time costs	1557
Bowel effects: recurrent costs	26
Erectile dysfunction: including one-time costs	393
Erectile dysfunction: recurrent costs	154
Underlying urinary obstruction	968
Underlying erectile dysfunction	366
Patient Time Costs
Daily patient wage	165
Surveillance Costs
PSA test/provider visits	83
Visit with TRUS-guided biopsy	165
Bone scan	83
Procedure Costs
Radical prostatectomy (open)	445
Brachytherapy	825
IMRT	1,857
Androgen Deprivation Therapy	165
Short-term Adverse Effects and Complications
Minor complications of radical prostatectomy	592
Major complications of radical prostatectomy	1,564
Septicemia after biopsy	938
Urinary symptoms	115
Acute urinary retention (brachytherapy)	152
Bowel symptoms	1,975
Urethral stricture (radical prostatectomy)	165
Long-term Adverse Effects and Symptoms
Incontinence: including one-time costs	386
Incontinence: recurrent costs	83
Bowel effects: including one-time costs	2,434
Bowel effects: recurrent costs	140
Erectile dysfunction: including one-time costs	182
Erectile dysfunction: recurrent costs	83
Underlying urinary obstruction	667
Underlying erectile dysfunction	83

^*Where standard deviations are provided, the parameter was varied (range 0,1) in probabilistic sensitivity analysis using a beta distribution function in TreeAge Pro parameterized with approximations of a and b (range 0,1) based on the mean and standard deviation (sd) using the following formulas:

Beta distribution (real number form)

Formula: $\mathrm{f}\left(\mathrm{x}\right)=x^{(a-1)}{(1-x)}^{(b-1)}\frac{\Gamma (a+b)}{\Gamma \left(a\right)\Gamma \left(b\right)}$

Domain: 0 < x < 1

Parameters: a > 0, b > 0

Details: $Mean=\frac{a}{(a+b)}$

The parameters a and b can be approximated from a mean μ and standard deviation σ:

$\mathrm{a}=\mu (\frac{\mu (1-\mu )}{{\sigma }^2}-1)$

$b=(1-\mu )(\frac{\mu }{{\sigma }^2}(1-\mu )-1)$

^**Uniform distribution used in probabilistic sensitivity analysis

^***For sources of costs, please see Methods section and Appendix 1.