Table 1.
Breast cancer incidence from the age-period-cohort model with and without the screening period effect, by stage and year of diagnosis
| Year and Stage of Diagnosis | Incidence per 100,000 womena | Percent of cases attributable to screening (95% CI) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Without screening | Difference (95% CI) | ||
| All Cases | ||||
| 1985 | 274.8 | 243.1 | 31.6 (28.3, 34.3) | 11.5% (10.3, 12.5) |
| 1990 | 319.8 | 241.0 | 78.8 (72.2, 84.1) | 24.6% (22.7, 26.2) |
| 1995 | 338.4 | 241.1 | 97.3 (91.1, 102.9) | 28.8% (27.0, 30.4) |
| 2000 | 359.1 | 259.2 | 99.9 (91.6, 107.0) | 27.8% (25.7, 29.8) |
| 2005 | 352.1 | 262.0 | 90.1 (80.7, 100.8) | 25.6% (22.9, 28.5) |
| 2010 | 337.4 | 259.5 | 77.9 (63.3, 92.9) | 23.1% (18.8, 27.4) |
| Invasive | ||||
| 1985 | 257.0 | 230.2 | 26.8 (24.0, 29.2) | 10.4% (9.3, 11.3) |
| 1990 | 285.2 | 224.2 | 61.0 (55.4, 65.7) | 21.2% (19.3, 22.8) |
| 1995 | 289.7 | 220.5 | 69.3 (63.4, 74.6) | 23.6% (21.6, 25.4) |
| 2000 | 293.2 | 227.0 | 66.2 (57.5, 72.6) | 22.3% (19.3, 24.4) |
| 2005 | 282.9 | 227.4 | 55.5 (45.9, 64.5) | 19.3% (15.9, 22.5) |
| 2010 | 268.5 | 228.2 | 40.2 (26.5, 52.9) | 14.7% (9.5, 19.3) |
| DCIS | ||||
| 1985 | 17.8 | 12.9 | 4.8 (4.2, 5.2) | 27.1% (24.3, 29.6) |
| 1990 | 34.6 | 16.8 | 17.8 (16.3, 19.3) | 51.5% (47.5, 55.3) |
| 1995 | 48.7 | 20.6 | 28.1 (26.4, 29.8) | 57.5% (54.4, 61.0) |
| 2000 | 65.9 | 32.2 | 33.7 (32.0, 36.5) | 51.1% (48.2, 54.8) |
| 2005 | 69.2 | 34.6 | 34.6 (32.0, 37.6) | 49.9% (46.4, 54.3) |
| 2010 | 68.9 | 31.3 | 37.6 (33.0, 41.5) | 54.5% (47.4, 59.6) |
| Localized | ||||
| 1985 | 138.9 | 117.4 | 21.5 (19.8, 23.8) | 15.5% (14.2, 17.2) |
| 1990 | 174.8 | 121.6 | 53.2 (49.7, 57.8) | 30.5% (28.7, 33.0) |
| 1995 | 188.6 | 125.2 | 63.4 (59.3, 67.3) | 33.7% (31.5, 35.7) |
| 2000 | 187.1 | 125.9 | 61.2 (55.2, 65.9) | 33.0% (29.7, 35.5) |
| 2005 | 181.5 | 127.0 | 54.5 (47.5, 60.5) | 30.4% (26.6, 33.7) |
| 2010 | 174.8 | 129.7 | 45.1 (36.3, 54.0) | 26.2% (21.2, 31.4) |
| Regional | ||||
| 1985 | 96.1 | 91.4 | 4.7 (3.1, 6.2) | 4.9% (3.2, 6.4) |
| 1990 | 87.2 | 80.3 | 6.9 (4.0, 9.6) | 7.9% (4.7, 10.9) |
| 1995 | 80.3 | 75.5 | 4.8 (2.1, 7.3) | 6.1% (2.8, 9.1) |
| 2000 | 85.6 | 81.2 | 4.5 (0.5, 7.7) | 5.4% (0.9, 9.1) |
| 2005 | 81.4 | 78.7 | 2.7 (−1.5, 6.4) | 3.5% (−1.5, 7.9) |
| 2010 | 74.3 | 74.3 | 0.0 (−6.3, 5.4) | 0.1% (−8.2, 7.1) |
| Distant | ||||
| 1985 | 16.9 | 16.6 | 0.2 (−1.0, 1.0) | 1.3% (−6.0, 6.1) |
| 1990 | 17.0 | 16.5 | 0.5 (−1.6, 2.0) | 2.8% (−9.5, 11.3) |
| 1995 | 15.7 | 15.0 | 0.7 (−0.9, 2.3) | 4.7% (−5.5, 14.8) |
| 2000 | 16.7 | 16.6 | 0.0 (−1.8, 1.8) | 0.5% (−10.7, 10.9) |
| 2005 | 17.3 | 19.5 | −2.1 (−4.2, −0.4) | −12.0% (−24.3, −2.2) |
| 2010 | 17.5 | 22.5 | −5.1 (−8.2, −2.4) | −29.0% (−48.1, −13.1) |
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; DCIS, ductal carcinoma in situ.
a
Age-adjusted to the 2000 U.S. female population for ages 40–84.