Table 2.
Model Predictions for sGERD and BE
Model predictions for sGERD and BE prevalence, the prevalence of BE given sGERD, and the relative risk (RR) for BE given sGERD (versus no sGERD) are shown for males and females by five-year age group between 20 and 84, and for early years (1975–1984) versus late years (2000–2009) during the 1975–2009 study. Estimates are shown as MCMC medians, including 95% MCMC credibility intervals (CI)s.
| Males 1975–1984 | Males 2000–2009 | Females 1975–1984 | Females 2000–2009 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCMC median |
Lower 95% CI |
Upper 95% CI |
MCMC median |
Lower 95% CI |
Upper 95% CI |
MCMC median |
Lower 95% CI |
Upper 95% CI |
MCMC median |
Lower 95% |
Upper 95% CI |
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| Percent of population with sGERD | ||||||||||||
| Age 20–34 | 1.28% | 1.22% | 1.29% | 3.73% | 3.73% | 3.74% | 1.44% | 1.03% | 2.26% | 5.84% | 3.43% | 9.27% |
| Age 35–44 | 3.98% | 3.79% | 4.01% | 11.10% | 11.10% | 11.11% | 5.18% | 4.22% | 5.88% | 22.61% | 11.11% | 33.33% |
| Age 45–54 | 6.32% | 6.03% | 6.37% | 17.05% | 17.05% | 17.06% | 8.69% | 7.09% | 9.82% | 28.31% | 16.34% | 41.05% |
| Age 55–64 | 8.30% | 7.93% | 8.37% | 22.56% | 22.55% | 22.57% | 11.89% | 9.74% | 13.42% | 23.21% | 21.81% | 26.63% |
| Age 65–74 | 7.13% | 6.95% | 7.22% | 27.92% | 27.91% | 27.94% | 15.02% | 12.34% | 16.91% | 27.59% | 27.29% | 28.41% |
| Age 75–84 | 6.98% | 6.77% | 7.15% | 32.72% | 32.71% | 32.74% | 18.00% | 14.84% | 20.22% | 32.58% | 32.24% | 33.51% |
| BE prevalence | ||||||||||||
| Age 20–34 | 0.85% | 0.84% | 0.86% | 0.87% | 0.86% | 0.88% | 0.40% | 0.25% | 0.74% | 0.42% | 0.26% | 0.76% |
| Age 35–44 | 1.25% | 1.24% | 1.27% | 1.29% | 1.29% | 1.32% | 0.60% | 0.39% | 1.10% | 0.70% | 0.42% | 1.24% |
| Age 45–54 | 1.59% | 1.59% | 1.61% | 1.67% | 1.66% | 1.70% | 0.80% | 0.54% | 1.47% | 1.00% | 0.61% | 1.72% |
| Age 55–64 | 1.93% | 1.92% | 1.96% | 2.08% | 2.06% | 2.13% | 1.02% | 0.71% | 1.89% | 1.21% | 0.81% | 2.17% |
| Age 65–74 | 2.24% | 2.23% | 2.27% | 2.55% | 2.52% | 2.62% | 1.27% | 0.90% | 2.38% | 1.56% | 1.03% | 2.88% |
| Age 75–84 | 2.56% | 2.55% | 2.59% | 3.03% | 2.98% | 3.12% | 1.55% | 1.09% | 2.92% | 1.99% | 1.26% | 3.66% |
| Prevalence of BE given sGERD | ||||||||||||
| Age 20–34 | 1.43% | 1.38% | 1.52% | 1.42% | 1.38% | 1.51% | 0.94% | 0.53% | 1.75% | 0.89% | 0.53% | 1.64% |
| Age 35–44 | 1.77% | 1.73% | 1.86% | 1.79% | 1.74% | 1.88% | 1.06% | 0.65% | 1.95% | 1.09% | 0.67% | 2.01% |
| Age 45–54 | 2.35% | 2.27% | 2.49% | 2.35% | 2.27% | 2.48% | 1.69% | 0.92% | 3.12% | 1.70% | 0.91% | 3.15% |
| Age 55–64 | 2.94% | 2.84% | 3.14% | 2.96% | 2.85% | 3.15% | 2.31% | 1.17% | 4.34% | 2.32% | 1.17% | 4.35% |
| Age 65–74 | 3.56% | 3.43% | 3.81% | 3.62% | 3.48% | 3.87% | 2.95% | 1.42% | 5.60% | 3.01% | 1.44% | 5.70% |
| Age 75–84 | 4.26% | 4.04% | 4.54% | 4.27% | 4.09% | 4.58% | 3.59% | 1.68% | 6.83% | 3.69% | 1.71% | 7.02% |
| RR for BE given sGERD (versus no sGERD) | ||||||||||||
| All ages | 3.27 | 2.98 | 3.78 | 3.29 | 3.03 | 3.74 | 7.97 | 2.71 | 13.96 | 7.97 | 2.71 | 13.96 |
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