Table 3.

Prevalence of BE given sGERD duration

Model predictions BE prevalence given sGERD duration (including No sGERD, >0–10 years, >10–20 years, >20–40 years, and >40 years) are shown for males and females for three age groups (55–64, 65–74, and 75–84), and for early years (1975–1984) versus late years (2000–2009) during the 1975–2009 study. Estimates are shown as MCMC medians, including 95% MCMC credibility intervals (CI)s.

	Males 1975–1984			Males 2000–2009			Females 1975–1984			Females 2000–2009
	MCMC median	Lower 95% CI	Upper 95% CI	MCMC median	Lower 95% CI	Upper 95% CI	MCMC median	Lower 95% CI	Upper 95% CI	MCMC median	Lower 95% CI	Upper 95% CI
sGERD duration - age 55–64
No sGERD	1.91%	1.90%	1.95%	1.90%	1.89%	1.94%	0.90%	0.57%	1.68%	0.89%	0.57%	1.67%
>0 – 10 years	2.19%	2.18%	2.22%	2.17%	2.15%	2.22%	1.30%	0.88%	2.39%	1.28%	0.86%	2.36%
>10–20 years	2.99%	2.89%	3.18%	2.95%	2.86%	3.14%	2.49%	1.24%	4.71%	2.44%	1.21%	4.58%
>20–40 years	3.79%	3.60%	4.15%	3.76%	3.58%	4.09%	3.57%	1.52%	6.87%	3.51%	1.49%	6.76%
>40 years	5.34%	4.96%	6.02%	5.31%	4.96%	5.93%	5.93%	2.14%	11.56%	5.88%	2.11%	11.49%
sGERD duration - age 65–74
No sGERD	2.20%	2.19%	2.24%	2.20%	2.18%	2.24%	1.03%	0.66%	1.93%	1.03%	0.66%	1.93%
>0 – 10 years	2.47%	2.46%	2.49%	2.47%	2.45%	2.52%	1.43%	0.97%	2.62%	1.44%	0.98%	2.63%
>10–20 years	3.25%	3.15%	3.42%	3.25%	3.15%	3.43%	2.62%	1.36%	4.86%	2.63%	1.36%	4.88%
>20–40 years	4.30%	4.09%	4.68%	4.29%	4.08%	4.66%	4.14%	1.76%	7.96%	4.15%	1.77%	7.98%
>40 years	5.95%	5.55%	6.66%	5.89%	5.51%	6.55%	6.46%	2.38%	12.55%	6.46%	2.38%	12.53%
sGERD duration - age 75–84
No sGERD	2.50%	2.48%	2.54%	2.49%	2.47%	2.54%	1.17%	0.75%	2.19%	1.17%	0.75%	2.19%
>0 – 10 years	2.77%	2.77%	2.79%	2.75%	2.74%	2.81%	1.56%	1.06%	2.84%	1.58%	1.07%	2.87%
>10–20 years	3.58%	3.46%	3.73%	3.52%	3.43%	3.69%	2.74%	1.48%	5.03%	2.76%	1.49%	5.07%
>20–40 years	4.70%	4.42%	5.03%	4.58%	4.37%	4.94%	4.26%	1.87%	8.13%	4.29%	1.88%	8.18%
>40 years	6.13%	5.66%	6.71%	5.93%	5.57%	6.54%	5.87%	2.32%	11.36%	5.88%	2.32%	11.38%