Table 5.

Absolute annual risk (per 100,000 individuals) for EAC given sGERD duration

Model predictions for the absolute risk (per 100,000 individuals) for EAC given sGERD duration (including No sGERD, >0–10 years, >10–20 years, >20–40 years, and >40 years) are shown for males and females for three age groups (55–64, 65–74, and 75–84), and for early years (1975–1984) versus late years (2000–2009) during the 1975–2009 study. Estimates are shown as MCMC medians, including 95% MCMC credibility intervals (CI)s.

	Males 1975–1984			Males 2000–2009			Females 1975–1984			Females 2000–2009
	MCMC median	Lower 95% CI	Upper 95% CI	MCMC median	Lower 95% CI	Upper 95% CI	MCMC median	Lower 95% CI	Upper 95% CI	MCMC median	Lower 95% CI	Upper 95% CI
sGERD duration - age 55–64
No sGERD	2.26	2.24	2.30	9.06	8.97	9.16	0.15	0.11	0.19	0.54	0.39	0.73
>0 – 10 years	2.69	2.64	2.76	10.42	10.24	10.58	0.16	0.11	0.21	0.60	0.43	0.79
>10–20 years	5.80	5.68	5.84	22.36	22.22	22.88	0.48	0.34	0.70	2.83	2.24	4.04
>20–40 years	21.96	21.31	23.08	35.95	35.61	36.94	3.58	2.49	5.16	8.39	6.57	10.88
>40 years	44.40	42.03	47.67	60.27	56.48	64.64	16.48	9.20	26.07	24.88	12.98	42.08
sGERD duration - age 65–74
No sGERD	3.20	3.17	3.26	16.25	16.07	16.45	0.22	0.15	0.31	0.88	0.61	1.25
>0 – 10 years	3.73	3.69	3.82	17.91	17.60	18.22	0.23	0.15	0.33	0.94	0.65	1.32
>10–20 years	5.84	5.76	5.94	34.05	33.75	34.79	0.46	0.27	0.80	4.00	3.11	5.18
>20–40 years	31.49	30.86	33.05	44.26	44.08	45.08	6.92	5.38	8.27	12.52	10.74	15.72
>40 years	54.12	51.05	57.65	71.55	67.32	77.36	22.57	12.80	33.64	33.65	17.58	52.94
sGERD duration - age 75–84
No sGERD	3.49	3.44	3.57	21.08	20.86	21.33	0.27	0.17	0.44	1.16	0.79	1.78
>0 – 10 years	3.90	3.82	3.96	22.82	22.52	23.22	0.29	0.18	0.46	1.22	0.83	1.87
>10–20 years	5.10	5.03	5.22	38.77	38.24	39.41	0.38	0.21	0.78	4.06	2.77	5.42
>20–40 years	33.79	33.14	36.15	51.16	50.99	52.28	8.06	5.18	10.38	16.11	13.98	20.11
>40 years	49.96	48.26	51.19	59.72	57.12	63.42	14.65	12.21	17.41	21.00	15.10	27.47