Table 3.
Final Bayesian Plasmodium falciparum model developed using data from 62 schools, and P. vivax model developed from 71 schools' data (both models retained school-level and spatial random effects)
| P. falciparum model parameter value (95% BIC) | P. vivax model parameter value (95% BCI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Altitude | −0.568 (−1.035, −0.087) | – |
| Slope | −0.595 (−0.996, −0.234) | – |
| Distance to permanent river | −0.411 (−0.774, −0.036) | – |
| Population density in 2010 | 0.418 (−0.107, 0.911) | – |
| Bare or sparse land (binary) | 1.026 (−0.392, 2.298) | – |
| Urban area (binary) | −3.13 (−6.279, −0.028) | – |
| σ2school | 0.254 (0.006, 1.250) | 0.288 (0.013, 0.939) |
| σ2spatial | 1.183 (0.177, 2.311) | 3.631 (1.31, 10.85) |
| φ | 9.763 (2.631, 19.03) | 0.866 (0.211, 2.093) |
| Range in kilometer | 45.57 (17.54, 127) | 548.3 (160.5, 1,592) |
| DIC | 308.8 | 330.8 |
BIC = Bayesian information criterion; DIC = deviance information criterion.
School and spatial variance (σ2school and σ2spatial), rate of decay of spatial correlation (φ), range in kilometer at which correlation between schools falls to 5% are presented with 95% Bayesian credible intervals. The P. falciparum model includes parameter values and 95% BCI for standardized environmental fixed effects. No environmental fixed effects were retained in the final P. vivax model.