Table A2.

Performance of models predicting prostate cancer when applied to a cohort of 691 men with PSA 3–15 ng/ml of which 531 were not previously biopsied (370 controls and 321 prostate cancer cases of which 156 with high-grade cancer).

Model	All cancer			High-grade cancer
	AUC	CI (95%)	p (vs base)	AUC	CI (95%)	p (vs base)
Base model	52.0	(47.7–56.3)	-	56.7	(51.6–61.8)	-
4K-panel*	71.1	(67.3–75.0)	<0.0001	73.2	(68.8–77.5)	<0.0001
PHI	72.2	(68.5–76.0)	<0.0001	71.8	(67.2–76.5)	<0.0001
AUC comparison: PHI vs 4K-panel			0.59			0.52

^*The 4K-panel risks for patients who underwent a previous biopsy were recalibrated using a 10-fold cross validated Bayes factor.