Table 1. Area suitability for coffee cultivation under the four concentration pathways of projected climate change in 2050 showing total suitability across all habitat types, suitability within areas not currently covered by forest, those not covered by other crops and in particular by cocoa and separating between the surface that will be suitable for the two main species of coffee.
Bold numbers indicate surfaces that are not enough to meet future demand, with total future demand for coffee being 10,507,974 and that for Arabica being 7,355,581. All areas are in hectares.
| Concentration pathway | Coffee species | Total area suitable | Suitable area outside forest | Suitable area outside forest and other crops |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP26 | Arabica | 21,288,000 | 10,652,800 | 9,106,176 |
| Robusta | 76,247,500 | 27,864,000 | 21,105,850 | |
| RCP45 | Arabica | 18,744,200 | 9,876,630 | 8,496,244 |
| Robusta | 112,722,000 | 38,658,700 | 29,496,392 | |
| RCP60 | Arabica | 21,628,100 | 11,119,300 | 9,632,061 |
| Robusta | 93,171,400 | 35,325,700 | 27,198,722 | |
| RCP85 | Arabica | 16,011,900 | 7,808,080 | 6,731,676 |
| Robusta | 107,420,900 | 34,399,300 | 25,622,863 | |
| Average | Arabica | 19,418,050 | 9,864,203 | 8,491,539 |
| Robusta | 97,390,450 | 34,061,925 | 25,855,957 | |
| SD | Arabica | 2,610,043 | 1,463,438 | 1,261,706 |
| Robusta | 16,334,943 | 4,518,686 | 3,543,710 |