Table 2.
Risk prediction models for high-risk colorectal adenoma at first-time screening colonoscopy
| Men |
Women |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Characteristic | Case/Non-case (330/4551) | OR | (95% CI) | P* | Case/Non-case (678/17292) | OR | (95% CI) | P* |
| Age, yrs | ||||||||
| <55 | 17/639 | 1.00 | -- | <0.001 | 61/1550 | 1.00 | -- | 0.10 |
| 55-59 | 62/1195 | 2.00 | (1.15,3.47) | 105/3347 | 0.85 | (0.61,1.17) | ||
| 60-64 | 84/1019 | 3.08 | (1.80,5.29) | 172/4781 | 0.96 | (0.71,1.31) | ||
| 65-69 | 73/750 | 3.42 | (1.97,5.91) | 165/3882 | 1.13 | (0.83,1.54) | ||
| ≥70 | 94/948 | 3.64 | (2.13,6.23) | 175/3732 | 1.26 | (0.92,1.73) | ||
| Family history of colorectal cancer | 65/719 | 1.43 | (1.07,1.91) | 0.01 | 193/3814 | 1.41 | (1.18,1.67) | <0.001 |
| BMI, kg/m 2 † | ||||||||
| Quartile 1 | 54/1192 | 1.00 | -- | <0.001 | 149/4349 | 1.00 | -- | 0.14 |
| Quartile 2 | 90/1172 | 1.59 | (1.12,2.26) | 167/4338 | 1.14 | (0.91,1.43) | ||
| Quartile 3 | 87/1050 | 1.69 | (1.18,2.41) | 181/4330 | 1.23 | (0.99,1.54) | ||
| Quartile 4 | 99/1137 | 1.73 | (1.22,2.47) | 181/4275 | 1.29 | (1.03,1.61) | ||
| Aspirin (regular vs non-regular) | 121/1801 | 0.78 | (0.62,0.99) | 0.03 | 253/6901 | 0.88 | (0.75,1.04) | 0.15 |
| NSAIDs (regular vs non-regular) | 64/1110 | 0.70 | (0.53,0.93) | 0.02 | 238/7186 | 0.77 | (0.65,0.91) | 0.001 |
| Smoking, pack-years | ||||||||
| Never smoked | 121/2101 | 1.00 | -- | 0.008 | 283/7950 | 1.00 | -- | <0.001 |
| 1-4 | 36/646 | 0.91 | (0.62,1.35) | 61/1910 | 0.93 | (0.70,1.24) | ||
| 5-19 | 66/839 | 1.29 | (0.94,1.77) | 132/3380 | 1.11 | (0.90,1.37) | ||
| 20-39 | 69/674 | 1.46 | (1.06,2.01) | 122/2683 | 1.25 | (1.00,1.55) | ||
| ≥40 | 38/291 | 1.64 | (1.10,2.45) | 80/1369 | 1.50 | (1.15,1.95) | ||
| Physical activity‡ | ||||||||
| Low | 145/1534 | 1.00 | -- | 0.06 | ||||
| Moderate | 98/1486 | 0.81 | (0.62,1.07) | |||||
| High | 87/1531 | 0.70 | (0.53,0.94) | |||||
| Sitting watching TV/VCR, h/d | ||||||||
| <0.5 | 78/1267 | 1.00 | -- | 0.004 | ||||
| 0.5-<2 | 110/1831 | 1.03 | (0.76,1.39) | |||||
| ≥2 | 142/1453 | 1.49 | (1.11,1.99) | |||||
| Alcohol*Multivitamin | ||||||||
| <5 g/d, never used multivitamin | 25/392 | 1.00 | -- | 0.08 | ||||
| <5 g/d, ever used multivitamin | 104/1602 | 1.03 | (0.65,1.62) | |||||
| 5-29 g/d, never used multivitamin | 34/356 | 1.44 | (0.84,2.49) | |||||
| 5-29 g/d, ever used multivitamin | 121/1675 | 1.19 | (0.75,1.88) | |||||
| ≥30 g/d, never used multivitamin | 15/92 | 2.32 | (1.15,4.66) | |||||
| ≥30 g/d, ever used multivitamin | 31/434 | 1.02 | (0.59,1.79) | |||||
| Calcium, mg/d§ | ||||||||
| <300 | 139/2881 | 1.00 | -- | 0.07 | ||||
| 300-599 | 132/3173 | 0.88 | (0.69,1.13) | |||||
| ≥600 | 407/11238 | 0.80 | (0.66,0.98) | |||||
| Oral contraceptive (ever vs never) | 346/9728 | 0.89 | (0.76,1.05) | 0.03 | ||||
| Alcohol (≥30 vs <30 g/d) | 40/712 | 1.32 | (0.95,1.85) | 0.09 | ||||
| Beef/pork/lamb as main dish, servings | ||||||||
| <2/mo | 163/4506 | 1.00 | -- | 0.05 | ||||
| 2/mo-<2/wk | 286/7558 | 1.08 | (0.88,1.31) | |||||
| ≥2/wk | 229/5228 | 1.26 | (1.02,1.55) | |||||
P-value for stepwise selection.
BMI quartile cutoff points in men: 24.1, 25.9, 28.2 kg/m2; in women: 22.9, 25.8, 29.3 kg/m2.
Physical activity was defined by levels of brisk walking (walking speed ≥3 miles/hr) and vigorous activity (activities with ≥6 metabolic equivalents including running, jogging, bicycling, swimming, tennis, squash, racquetball and aerobics). Low: 0-4.9 hrs of brisk walking per week and no vigorous activity; moderate: 0-4.9 hrs of brisk walking and 0.1-2.9 hrs of vigorous activity; high: ≥5 hrs of brisk walking or ≥3 hrs of vigorous activity.
Calcium intake was the sum of calcium intake from supplement and food. Calcium from food was derived by multiplying the total daily intake of milk, yogurt and fortified orange juice by 300mg.