Figure 2. Cumulative number of cases in Liberia for the parameters given in Table 1.

Cumulative number of cases obtained with our stochastic model with the transition presented in Table S1 and Eq. (11) in Liberia with 1000 realisations (gray lines) and the data (symbols) without temporal shift (a) and (b) with a temporal shift using s_c = 200. The transmission coefficients β_I = 0.14, β_H = 0.29 and β_F = 0.40 were obtained as explained in Methods: Calibration with the deterministic equations. From the WHO’s data the index case is located at Lofa on March 17 2014.