Table 2. Estimated Effects of Health Insurance Expansion on Nonelderly Adults With Hypertension, by Sex.
| Scenario/Sex | No. of CVD Events and CVD-Related Deaths Per 10,000 Populationa |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| CHD | Stroke | CVD Death | |
| Baseline scenario: no expansion, no. (95% CI) | |||
| Total | 2,022 (1,914–2,130) | 837 (769–905) | 816 (763–869) |
| Male | 1,366 (1,303–1,429) | 424 (391–457) | 474 (446–502) |
| Female | 648 (603–693) | 421 (386–456) | 342 (317–367) |
| Scenario 1: currently undecided states opting out of Medicaid expansion | |||
| Total, no. (95% CI) | 2,011 (1,906–2,116) | 831 (763–899) | 806 (753–859) |
| Difference (% change) | 11.1 (−0.55) | 6.3 (−0.75) | 9.5 (−1.16) |
| Male, no. (95% CI) | 1,358 (1,297–1,419) | 420 (385–455) | 468 (440–496) |
| Difference (% change) | 8.3 (−0.61) | 4.1 (−0.96) | 5.8 (−1.23) |
| Female, no. (95% CI) | 645 (596–694) | 419 (379–459) | 338 (303–373) |
| Difference (% change) | 2.8 (−0.43) | 2.3 (−0.54) | 3.7 (−1.07) |
| Scenario 2: all US population under insurance coverage | |||
| Total, no. (95% CI) | 1,992 (1,884–2,100) | 826 (761–891) | 794 (744–844) |
| Difference (% change) | 29.9 (−1.48) | 10.9 (−1.30) | 22.2 (−2.73) |
| Male, no. (95% CI) | 1,344 (1,281–1,407) | 418 (386–450) | 460 (434–486) |
| Difference (% change) | 21.9 (−1.6) | 6.3 (−1.49) | 14.0 (−2.96) |
| Female, no. (95% CI) | 640 (590–690) | 416 (377–455) | 334 (299–369) |
| Difference (% change) | 7.9 (−1.21) | 4.8 (−1.14) | 8.2 (−2.41) |
Abbreviations: CHD, coronary heart disease; CI, confidence interval; CVD, cardiovascular disease.
a
Values expressed as no. (95% CI), unless otherwise indicated. 95% CIs obtained from Monte Carlo simulations.