Table 1.
Simulation parameters
| Variable | Levels simulated for PEV and SMC | |
|---|---|---|
| Model variants | (1) R0000 base model | |
| (2) R0068 heterogeneity in transmission: within-host variability | ||
| (3) R0131 immunity decay in effective cumulative exposure | ||
| (4) R0132 immunity decay in immune proxies | ||
| (5) R0133 immunity decay in both immune proxies & effective cumulative exposure | ||
| (6) R0670 heterogeneity in susceptibility to co-morbidity | ||
| Population size | 100,000 | |
| Age-group upper bounds (years) | 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 99 | |
| Survey intervals | Yearly surveys for 20 years | |
| Transmission pattern | Seasonal, West Africa | |
| EIR (infectious bites per person per year) | 0.1a, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 64, 256 | |
| Uncomplicated case managementb (%) | 0, 5, 40 | |
| Inpatient care for severe casesc (%) | 0, 100 | |
| Vaccination coverage (%) | 0, 100 | |
| PEV only | SMC only | |
|---|---|---|
| Cohort age | EPI cohort 6, 10, 14 weeks old |
All children aged between 3–59 months |
| Initial efficacy against infection (%) | 62.7 | 100 |
| Half-life (years) | 1.12 | 0.175 |
| Weibull decay shape parameter (k) | 1 (exponential decay) | 3.300 (slow decay, followed by quick decay) |
| Number of simulations | 67,680 | 10,080 |
aEIR of 0.1 was not simulated, but any predictions for this level are taken as 10% of EIR 1.
bProbability of access to treatment for uncomplicated disease during a 5-day period.
cProbability of access to hospital care (or equivalent) for severe disease during any 5 day period.