Table 2.
Actual events, excess events and excess risk of the composite endpoint
| MBD definition | N | Composite events (cardiovascular hospitalization or death) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Predicted | Excess | Excess fraction (%) | ||
| Model development sample | |||||
| All in Target | 5224 | 2248 | 2248 | 0 | 0 |
| KDOQI PTH Target | |||||
| ≥1 Out* | 20 997 | 9368 | 8455 | 913 (605–1266) | 9.7 (6.5–13.4) |
| ≥2 Out | 11 373 | 5174 | 4423 | 751 (531–974) | 14.5 (10.4–18.6) |
| 3 Out | 1774 | 845 | 681 | 164 (113–215) | 19.4 (13.7–24.7) |
| ≥1 High | 19 105 | 8489 | 7581 | 908 (610–1246) | 10.7 (7.3–14.5) |
| ≥2 High | 9844 | 4461 | 3755 | 706 (508–913) | 15.8 (11.6–20.2) |
| 3 High | 1107 | 551 | 441 | 110 (73–147) | 20.0 (14.0–25.4) |
| KDIGO PTH Target | |||||
| ≥1 Out | 17 169 | 7712 | 6871 | 841 (577–1139) | 10.9 (7.5–14.7) |
| ≥2 Out | 6443 | 2971 | 2510 | 461 (327–609) | 15.5 (11.1–20.3) |
| 3 Out | 974 | 453 | 366 | 87 (53–120) | 19.2 (12.3–25.6) |
| ≥1 High | 15 094 | 6750 | 5916 | 834 (582–1119) | 12.4 (8.7–16.4) |
| ≥2 High | 4890 | 2258 | 1851 | 407 (291–529) | 18.0 (13.0–23.0) |
| 3 High | 514 | 242 | 197 | 45 (21–69) | 18.7 (9.6–26.5) |
*KDOQI PTH Target with ≥1 Out is the reference definition for comparing all other definitions. The All in Target population was used as the model development sample for the risk estimation. The excess fraction was calculated as the number of excess events divided by the number of actual events. Values in parentheses reflect the middle 95% of the bootstrap distribution.