Table S1.

Summary of simulated observed hSAR for different household sizes from the estimated model (1,000 simulations)

Household size	hSAR, %
3	23.7 [17.9, 30.0] (24.2)
4	28.0 [23.1, 33.1] (31.1)
5	27.5 [22.4, 32.3] (27.1)

The mean values of the simulated observations are followed by 95% two-sided intervals (the observed values are shown in bold following the intervals. It is noticed that the observed hSAR lay within the 95% credible intervals obtained from the model simulated data, indicating a reasonably good fit of the model to the data (1, 2).

1. Cook AR, Otten W, Marion G, Gibson GJ, Gilligan CA (2007) Estimation of multiple transmission rates for epidemics in heterogeneous populations. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104(51):20392–20397.

2. Gibson GJ, et al. (2006) Bayesian estimation for percolation models of disease spread in plant populations. Stat Comput 16(4):391–402.