Table 3. Standardized all-cause mortality rates † (per 100,000) projected to 2041 by sex, age, and ethnic groupings for tax and no tax to 2031 and ethnic inequality measures (SRDs [per 100,000] and SRRs).
| 2041 under BAU | 2041 with Tax | Percentage Decrease Post-tax (95% Simulation Interval) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | Age in 2041 | Rate | SRD | SRR | Rate | SRD | SRR | Rate | SRD (Māori c.f. non-Māori) | SRR ^ (Māori c.f. non-Māori) |
| Men | ||||||||||
| Māori | 45–64 | 717.1 | 424.1 | 2.447 | 705.3 | 414.4 | 2.424 | -1.64% (-2.43% to -1.05%) | -2.29% (-3.39% to -1.47%) | -1.60% (-2.38% to -1.02%) |
| 65–84 | 3,190.1 | 1,328.8 | 1.713 | 3,158.9 | 1,305.6 | 1.704 | -0.98% (-1.51% to -0.60%) | -1.76% (-2.71% to -1.09%) | -1.34% (-2.08% to -0.82%) | |
| 85+ | 14,656.0 | 2,762.9 | 1.232 | 14,623.9 | 2,744.1 | 1.231 | -0.22% (-0.38% to -0.12%) | -0.68% (-1.25% to -0.34%) | -0.57% (-1.08% to -0.26%) | |
| All 45+ | 1,690.5 | 720.8 | 1.743 | 1,673.0 | 707.2 | 1.732 | -1.03% (-1.57% to -0.65%) | -1.89% (-2.84% to -1.19%) | -1.49% (-2.25% to -0.94%) | |
| Non-Māori | 45–64 | 293.0 | 290.9 | -0.70% (-1.05% to -0.44%) | ||||||
| 65–84 | 1,861.2 | 1,853.3 | -0.43% (-0.66% to -0.25%) | |||||||
| 85+ | 11,893.2 | 11,879.9 | -0.11% (-0.19% to -0.06%) | |||||||
| All 45+ | 969.6 | 965.7 | -0.40% (-0.62% to -0.24%) | |||||||
| Women | ||||||||||
| Māori | 45–64 | 545.3 | 343.3 | 2.698 | 533.2 | 333.0 | 2.662 | -2.22% (-3.26% to -1.46%) | -3.01% (-4.4% to -1.97%) | -2.14% (-3.2% to -1.36%) |
| 65–84 | 2,890.5 | 1,543.1 | 2.144 | 2,841.0 | 1,502.5 | 2.121 | -1.71% (-2.56% to -1.11%) | -2.63% (-3.92% to -1.70%) | -1.99% (-2.97% to -1.27%) | |
| 85+ | 13,062.8 | 2,779.3 | 1.270 | 12,978.9 | 2,717.7 | 1.264 | -0.64% (-1.04% to -0.37%) | -2.23% (-3.65% to -1.27%) | -2.02% (-3.32% to -1.14%) | |
| All 45+ | 1,453.3 | 722.5 | 1.987 | 1,429.5 | 702.8 | 1.966 | -1.64% (-2.43% to -1.07%) | -2.73% (-4.04% to -1.77%) | -2.17% (-3.22% to -1.39%) | |
| Non-Māori | 45–64 | 202.0 | 200.2 | -0.88% (-1.35% to -0.55%) | ||||||
| 65–84 | 1,347.4 | 1,338.5 | -0.66% (-1.01% to -0.40%) | |||||||
| 85+ | 10,283.4 | 10,261.2 | -0.22% (-0.36% to -0.12%) | |||||||
| All 45+ | 730.8 | 726.7 | -0.57% (-0.87% to -0.35%) | |||||||
| Sexes combined | ||||||||||
| Māori | All 45+ | 3,143.8 | 1,443.3 | 1.848 | 3,102.5 | 1,410.1 | 1.833 | -1.31% (-1.95% to -0.85%) | -2.31% (-3.41% to -1.49%) | -1.84% (-2.73% to -1.19%) |
| Non-Māori | All 45+ | 1,700.5 | 1,692.4 | -0.47% (-0.73% to -0.29%) | ||||||
† Age-standardized using WHO world population mean over 4,000 model simulations.
^ Percentage difference in excess SRR (i.e., SRR– 1).