Table 1.

Model parameter values and ranges

Model parameters	Base-case value (Range)	Distribution	Reference
Model assumption
Discount rate cost/outcomes	0.03 (0–0.06)	–	[24]
Time horizon	Lifetime	–	–
Perspective	NHS	–	–
Cohort characteristics
Age F0, year	51 (41–61)	Normal	[11]
Age F1, year	52 (42–62)	Normal	[11]
Age F2, year	55 (44–66)	Normal	[11]
Age F3, year	59 (47–71)	Normal	[11]
Age F4, year	57 (46–72)	Normal	[11]
Body weight, kg	71	Normal	[11]
Stage of fibrosis distribution
F0	0.06	Dirichlet	[11]
F1	0.17	Dirichlet	[11]
F2	0.51	Dirichlet	[11]
F3	0.04	Dirichlet	[11]
F4	0.22	Dirichlet	[11]
Proportion with IL-28B genotype, CC type	0.33 (0.29–0.38)	Beta	[25]
HCV natural history
Fibrosis progression (annual probability)
F0–F1	0.12 (0.107–0.127)	Beta	[26]
F1–F2	0.09 (0.078–0.093)	Beta	[26]
F2–F3	0.12 (0.112–0.130)	Beta	[26]
F3–F4	0.12 (0.107–0.123)	Beta	[26]
F4 to Decompensated cirrhosis	0.04 (0.030–0.055)	Beta	[27]
F4–HCC	0.03 (0.024–0.042)	Beta	[27]
Decompensated cirrhosis to HCC	0.06 (0.026–0.091)	Beta	[28]
Decompensated cirrhosis to liver transplant	0.01 (0–0.022)	Beta	[28]
HCC to liver transplant	0.11 (0.076–0.141)	Beta	[11]
Mortality relative risk from nonliver causes in patients F0–F3	1.79 (0.8–4.0)	LogNormal	[13]
Hazard ratio for HCC development in patients F4 with SVR	0.24 (0.18–0.31)	LogNormal	[15]
Liver-related mortality (annual probability)
F4	0.03 (0.023–0.041)	Beta	[27]
Decompensated cirrhosis	0.13 (0.085–0.179)	Beta	[29]
HCC*	0.58 (0.530–0.630)	Beta	[14]
Liver transplant	0.13 (0.123–0.136)	Beta	[29]
Liver transplant, after 1st year	0.033 (0.032–0.034)	Beta	[29]

F0, Metavir fibrosis stage 0; F1, Metavir fibrosis stage 1; F2, Metavir fibrosis stage 2; F3, Metavir fibrosis stage 3; F4, Metavir fibrosis stage 4; SVR, Sustained virologic respond; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma.

^*The mortality rate included also the nonliver-related mortality.