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. 2015 Jul 11;152(3):627–636. doi: 10.1007/s10549-015-3490-4

Table 3.

Model validation

	5 year risk		Yearly risk
	Index cohort 2003–2006	Validation cohort 2007–2008	2003–2006
			Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Discrimination
C-statistic	0.71	0.70	0.84	0.77	0.70	0.73	0.62
Calibration
LR test (P value)	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	0.014
Goodness-of-fit test^a (P value)	0.2817	0.0897	0.1455	0.1767	0.5504	0.5182	0.8685
Internal validation
Shrinkage factor	0.98	Na	0.95	0.96	0.88	0.88	0.65
Corrected C-statistic^a	0.70	Na	0.83	0.76	0.67	0.71	0.58

^aAfter bootstrapping