Table 2.

Annual transition probabilities in the economic model

From	To	Mean	SE	Source	Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis
					Distribution	Lower	Upper
F0-F2	F3	0.025	0.004	[21, 32]	Beta	0.018	0.033
F3	F4	0.037	0.007	[21, 32]	Beta	0.025	0.052
F4	DCC	0.039	0.010	[21, 33]	Beta	0.022	0.061
	HCC	0.014	0.010	[21, 33]	Beta	0.002	0.039
SVR F4	DCC	0.000	0.000	expert opinion	Beta	0.000	0.000
	HCC	0.005	0.001	[34]	Beta	0.004	0.007
DCC	HCC	0.014	0.010	[21, 33]	Beta	0.002	0.039
	LT	0.020	0.003	[21, 35]	Beta	0.015	0.026
	LrD	0.130	0.010	[21, 33]	Beta	0.111	0.150
HCC	LT	0.020	0.003	[32, 35]	Beta	0.015	0.026
	LrD	0.430	0.030	[21, 33]	Beta	0.372	0.489
LT	LrD	0.150	0.023	[21, 36]	Beta	0.109	0.197
pLT	LrD	0.057	0.009	[21, 36]	Beta	0.041	0.075
All-cause mortality		Age/gender specific		Life Tables, German Federal Office of Statistics

DCC decompensated cirrhosis, HCC hepatocellular carcinoma, SVR sustained virologic response, LT liver transplant, LrD Liver related death, pLT post liver transplant, fibrosis states F0-F4 according to METAVIR