Figure 1.

Incidence of HIV-1 in Sweden 2003–09. This shows the yearly incidence of HIV-1 infections adjusted for the probability of being diagnosed (estimate, solid red line; 95% credible intervals, dashed red lines; right scale), the posterior density of infection times for all diagnosed persons with a usable BED test (grey lines, not shown to scale), the incidence rate per day unadjusted for unknown cases and the probability of being diagnosed (solid black line; left scale), and the time of diagnosis for each individual with a measured BED test below 1.84 (blue rug), and imputed BED results below 1.84 (red rug).