Table 7.
Transitions between risks—wave 4 and wave 5—Markov chain models
| Females |
Males |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No-No | No-Hi | Hi-No | Hi-Hi | No-No | No-Hi | Hi-No | Hi-Hi | |
| NHS calculator | ||||||||
| Baseline | −0.1284 | 0.1284 | 0.4099 | −0.4099 | −0.07325 | 0.07325 | 0.45714 | −0.45714 |
| (−0.146, −0.1129) | (0.1129, 0.146) | 0.3631, 0.4628) | (−0.4628, −0.3631) | (−0.08495, −0.06316) | (0.06316, 0.08495) | (0.39835, 0.52462) | (−0.52462, −0.39835) | |
| Single, Separated or Divorced | 0.8872 | 0.8434 | 1.071 | 1.164 | ||||
| (0.6308, 1.248) | (0.5988, 1.188) | (0.7703, 1.489) | (0.8086, 1.675) | |||||
| Widowed | 1.64 | 1.128 | 0.9054 | 1.0137 | ||||
| (1.0244, 2.625) | (0.7176, 1.772) | (0.5809, 1.411) | (0.6597, 1.558) | |||||
| Inactive | 0.6145 | 1.244 | 0.8579 | 1.1513 | ||||
| (0.3337, 1.132) | (0.6817, 2.27) | (0.562, 1.309) | (0.7475, 1.773) | |||||
| Retired | 1.131 | 1.28 | 1.298 | 1.017 | ||||
| (0.7928, 1.614) | (0.9365, 1.75) | (0.8913, 1.89) | (0.7068, 1.465) | |||||
| Social detachment | 1.422 | 1.015 | 1.4434 | 0.7146 | ||||
| (0.9136, 2.212) | (0.6432, 1.601) | (0.8713, 2.391) | (0.4624, 1.105) | |||||
| Healthy diet | 0.701 | 0.9571 | 0.8587 | 0.8458 | ||||
| (0.5451, 0.9014) | (0.756, 1.2116) | (0.6603, 0.997) | (0.655, 1.092) | |||||
| Children in household | 0.9449 | 1.1568 | 0.9236 | 1.019 | ||||
| (0.7957, 1.122) | (0.9798, 1.366) | (0.7666, 1.113) | (1.006, 1.192) | |||||
| Care responsibilities | 0.9425 | 0.6723 | 1.024 | 1.119 | ||||
| (0.6036, 1.472) | (0.3791, 1.193) | (0.695, 1.509) | (0.7619, 1.644) | |||||
| Depression | 1.27 | 1.241 | 1.043 | 1.036 | ||||
| (0.8707, 1.853) | (0.8175, 1.883) | (0.7161, 1.518) | (0.6994, 1.534) | |||||
| Loneliness | 1.339 | 0.956 | 0.703 | 1.199 | ||||
| (1.0513, 1.706) | 0.7434, 1.229) | (0.5397, 1.0158) | (1.009, 1.5631) | |||||
| Age | 0.9553 | 1.0063 | 0.9372 | 1.0089 | ||||
| (0.9346, 0.9765) | (0.9861, 1.0269) | (0.9149, 0.9601) | (1.004, 1.02) | |||||
| Income | 1.132 | 1.038 | 1.182 | 0.925 | ||||
| (1.0595, 1.336) | (0.8977, 1.201) | (1.0725, 1.436) | (0.8906, 0.994) | |||||
| Drinkaware | ||||||||
| Baseline | −0.05259 | 0.05259 | 0.5712 | −0.5712 | −0.03057 | 0.03057 | 0.68763 | −0.68763 |
| (−0.0634, −0.04362) | (0.04362, 0.0634) | (0.47439, 0.68777) | (−0.68777, −0.47439) | (−0.03853, −0.02425) | (0.02425, 0.03853) | (0.55616, 0.85019) | (−0.85019, −0.55616) | |
| Single, separated or Divorced | 0.9057 | 0.6875 | 0.7229 | 0.9928 | ||||
| (0.5652, 1.451) | (0.413, 1.144) | (0.4171, 1.253) | (0.6098, 1.617) | |||||
| Widowed | 1.4345 | 0.9938 | 1.0514 | 0.8398 | ||||
| (0.7141, 2.882) | (0.4726, 2.09) | (0.5504, 2.008) | (0.408, 1.728) | |||||
| Inactive | 0.8234 | 0.6979 | 0.7967 | 0.9268 | ||||
| (0.381, 1.78) | (0.225, 2.165) | (0.4215, 1.506) | (0.5042, 1.704) | |||||
| Retired | 0.9799 | 1.024 | 1.0329 | 0.9927 | ||||
| (0.595, 1.614) | (0.6472, 1.62) | (0.587, 1.817) | (0.5872, 1.678) | |||||
| Social detachment | 1.2899 | 0.7697 | 1.9598 | 0.9514 | ||||
| (0.6687, 2.488) | (0.3952, 1.499) | (0.8407, 4.568) | (0.4915, 1.842) | |||||
| Healthy diet | 0.6579 | 1.0043 | 0.9161 | 1.1118 | ||||
| (0.4613, 0.9384) | (0.7052, 1.4303) | (0.6166, 1.361) | (0.7642, 1.618) | |||||
| Children in household | 0.9264 | 1.2061 | 0.7426 | 1.0267 | ||||
| (0.7216, 1.189) | (0.9336, 1.558) | (0.5467, 1.009) | (0.7604, 1.386) | |||||
| Care responsibilities | 1.0629 | 0.9598 | 0.9351 | 0.894 | ||||
| (0.5575, 2.026) | (0.4473, 2.06) | (0.5207, 1.679) | (0.5063, 1.578) | |||||
| Depression | 1.348 | 1.077 | 1.063 | 1.379 | ||||
| (0.7908, 2.298) | (0.5404, 2.147) | (0.5895, 1.916) | (0.8133, 2.337) | |||||
| Loneliness | 0.875 | 1.216 | 1.188 | 1.248 | ||||
| (0.6125, 1.25) | (0.8404, 1.759) | (0.7972, 1.771) | (0.8561, 1.819) | |||||
| Age | 0.9679 | 1.0238 | 0.9348 | 1.0158 | ||||
| (0.9378, 0.999) | (0.9902, 1.058) | (0.9008, 0.97) | (0.9824, 1.05) | |||||
| Income | 1.2226 | 0.9997 | 1.1396 | 0.9005 | ||||
| (0.9522, 1.57) | (0.7827, 1.277) | (0.8527, 1.523) | (0.7337, 1.105) | |||||
| GLS | ||||||||
| Baseline | −0.03457 | 0.03457 | 0.69281 | −0.69281 | −0.02025 | 0.02025 | 0.91466 | −0.91466 |
| (−0.04375, −0.02731) | (0.02731, 0.04375) | (0.54746, 0.87675) | (−0.87675, −0.54746) | (−0.02771, −0.0148) | (0.0148, 0.02771) | (0.68949, 1.21338) | (−1.21338, −0.68949) | |
| Single, separated or Divorced | 1.273 | 1.068 | 1.096 | 1.562 | ||||
| (0.736, 2.203) | (0.6276, 1.816) | (0.5616, 2.139) | (0.8658, 2.818) | |||||
| Widowed | 1.526 | 1.103 | 0.5722 | 0.9541 | ||||
| (0.643, 3.624) | (0.4569, 2.662) | (0.2113, 1.549) | (0.3912, 2.327) | |||||
| Inactive | 1.006 | 1.415 | 0.6471 | 0.8418 | ||||
| (0.3744, 2.705) | (0.417, 4.803) | (0.2721, 1.539) | (0.3536, 2.004) | |||||
| Retired | 1.244 | 1.099 | 0.7033 | 0.7587 | ||||
| (0.6795, 2.279) | (0.6418, 1.883) | (0.3443, 1.437) | (0.3923, 1.467) | |||||
| Social detachment | 0.9481 | 0.6427 | 2.094 | 1.529 | ||||
| (0.438, 2.052) | (0.2881, 1.434) | (0.7146, 6.137) | (0.5673, 4.123) | |||||
| Healthy diet | 0.7523 | 0.8406 | 0.8258 | 0.7078 | ||||
| (0.4854, 1.166) | (0.5396, 1.31) | (0.4966, 1.373) | (0.4352, 1.151) | |||||
| Children in household | 0.8265 | 0.9603 | 0.6799 | 1.149 | ||||
| (0.6051, 1.129) | (0.6897, 1.337) | (0.4455, 1.038) | (1.023, 1.57) | |||||
| Care responsibilities | 0.6944 | 1.6489 | 1.0217 | 0.6739 | ||||
| (0.2448, 1.97) | (0.7734, 3.515) | (0.5086, 2.053) | (0.3038, 1.495) | |||||
| Depression | 1.5815 | 0.6557 | 0.8389 | 1.3212 | ||||
| (0.8629, 2.899) | (0.2568, 1.675) | (0.3616, 1.946) | (0.6781, 2.574) | |||||
| Loneliness | 1.11 | 1.325 | 1.051 | 1.07 | ||||
| (1.0729, 1.383) | (0.8505, 2.064) | (0.6321, 1.748) | (0.6529, 1.753) | |||||
| Age | 0.9401 | 0.9878 | 0.9753 | 1.0318 | ||||
| (0.9036, 0.978) | (0.9486, 1.029) | (0.9301, 1.023) | (0.9844, 1.081) | |||||
| Income | 1.199 | 1.111 | 1.5299 | 0.8842 | ||||
| (1.0947, 1.606) | (0.795, 1.554) | (1.0274, 2.278) | (0.6755, 1.157) | |||||