Table S3.

Sensitivity of CT for detecting changes in mean date of larval fish abundance (rates of phenological change: 0–8 d/decade)

CV	Simulated phenological change (d/decade)
	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
0.05	−0.3–0.3	0.7–1.3	1.7–2.3	2.7–3.3	3.7–4.3	4.7–5.3	5.8–6.2	6.7–7.3	7.7–8.3
0.10	−0.5–0.5	0.5–1.5	1.5–2.5	2.4–3.6	3.5–4.5	4.5–5.5	5.5–6.5	6.5–7.5	7.4–8.5
0.15	−0.8–0.7	0.3–1.8	1.2–2.8	2.2–3.7	3.2–4.8	4.2–5.8	5.1–6.8	6.2–7.8	7.2–8.8
0.20	−1.0–1.1	−0.1–2.1	0.9–3.1	1.9–4.1	3.0–5.1	3.9–6.0	4.8–7.1	5.9–8.1	6.9–9.1
0.25	−1.3–1.4	−0.3–2.2	0.7–3.4	1.6–4.3	2.6–5.4	3.5–6.4	4.7–7.4	5.7–8.4	6.7–9.4
0.30	−1.6–1.7	−0.7–2.6	0.4–3.5	1.4–4.6	2.4–5.6	3.5–6.5	4.3–7.6	5.3–8.6	6.4–9.6
0.35	−2.0–1.9	−0.9–2.9	−0.1–3.9	1.1–5.0	2.1–5.9	3.0–7.1	4.0–7.8	5.2–8.9	6.1–9.9
0.40	−2.1–2.4	−1.3–3.2	−0.1–4.5	0.8–5.2	1.9–6.2	2.8–7.5	3.9–8.2	4.8–9.3	5.6–10.2
0.45	−2.6–2.4	−1.6–3.5	−0.6–4.4	0.5–5.4	1.3–6.7	2.4–7.6	3.3–8.3	4.6–9.8	5.6–10.5
0.50	−2.6–3.0	−2.0–3.8	−0.7–4.9	0.2–5.9	1.1–6.8	2.3–7.8	3.3–8.9	4.1–9.9	4.9–11.0
0.55	−3.2–3.3	−2.0–4.1	−1.0–5.2	0.2–6.6	1.1–7.2	1.9–8.0	3.1–9.4	3.7–10.1	4.5–11.1
0.60	−3.4–3.3	−2.3–4.5	−1.5–5.3	−0.2–6.6	0.5–7.4	1.6–8.5	2.6–9.7	3.5–10.5	4.6–11.3

This table shows 95% CIs of the CT when detecting simulated shifts in phenology. CIs were generated with 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations each for fishes whose abundance varied based on 12 sets of CVs and 13 rates of phenological change.