Table 3. Projected number of excess ED visits on hot days (Tmax ≥ 35 °C) per Climate and Population Scenario.
Illness & Age | Base (1.8 hot days) | Projection Year & Climate Scenario | Projected Hot days | Population Growth Scenario |
||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C | B | A | ||||
All-cause 0–64 | 117.7 | 2030 Low emission | 1 | 97.9 | 106.2 | 112.1 |
2030 High emission | 3 | 293.6 | 318.6 | 336.4 | ||
2060 Low emission | 2 | 229.4 | 305.0 | 353.9 | ||
2060 High emission | 13 | 1491.2 | 1982.5 | 2300.2 | ||
All-cause 65+ | 30.8 | 2030 Low emission | 1 | 41.7 | 41.6 | 42.5 |
2030 High emission | 3 | 125.0 | 124.7 | 127.4 | ||
2060 Low emission | 2 | 145.3 | 153.6 | 182.8 | ||
2060 High emission | 13 | 944.2 | 998.5 | 1188.1 | ||
NEC 0–64 | 83.4 | 2030 Low emission | 1 | 69.3 | 75.2 | 79.4 |
2030 High emission | 3 | 208.0 | 225.6 | 238.3 | ||
2060 Low emission | 2 | 162.5 | 216.0 | 250.6 | ||
2060 High emission | 13 | 1056.2 | 1404.2 | 1629.2 | ||
NEC 65+ | 14.1 | 2030 Low emission | 1 | 19.1 | 19.0 | 19.4 |
2030 High emission | 3 | 57.2 | 57.0 | 58.3 | ||
2060 Low emission | 2 | 66.4 | 70.3 | 83.6 | ||
2060 High emission | 13 | 431.8 | 456.7 | 543.4 | ||
External 0–64 | 32.5 | 2030 Low emission | 1 | 27.0 | 29.3 | 30.9 |
2030 High emission | 3 | 81.0 | 87.9 | 92.8 | ||
2060 Low emission | 2 | 63.3 | 84.1 | 97.6 | ||
2060 High emission | 13 | 411.3 | 546.8 | 634.5 | ||
External 65+ | 17.2 | 2030 Low emission | 1 | 23.3 | 23.2 | 23.7 |
2030 High emission | 3 | 69.8 | 69.7 | 71.2 | ||
2060 Low emission | 2 | 81.1 | 85.8 | 102.1 | ||
2060 High emission | 13 | 527.4 | 557.8 | 663.7 | ||
Heat 0–64 | 0.7 | 2030 Low emission | 1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
2030 High emission | 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | ||
2060 Low emission | 2 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | ||
2060 High emission | 13 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 14.0 | ||
Heat 65+ | 0.6 | 2030 Low emission | 1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
2030 High emission | 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | ||
2060 Low emission | 2 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.8 | ||
2060 High emission | 13 | 19.5 | 20.7 | 24.6 |