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. 2015 Aug 6;5:12860. doi: 10.1038/srep12860

Table 3. Projected number of excess ED visits on hot days (Tmax ≥ 35 °C) per Climate and Population Scenario.

Illness & Age Base (1.8 hot days) Projection Year & Climate Scenario Projected Hot days Population Growth Scenario
C B A
All-cause 0–64 117.7 2030 Low emission 1 97.9 106.2 112.1
    2030 High emission 3 293.6 318.6 336.4
    2060 Low emission 2 229.4 305.0 353.9
    2060 High emission 13 1491.2 1982.5 2300.2
All-cause 65+ 30.8 2030 Low emission 1 41.7 41.6 42.5
    2030 High emission 3 125.0 124.7 127.4
    2060 Low emission 2 145.3 153.6 182.8
    2060 High emission 13 944.2 998.5 1188.1
NEC 0–64 83.4 2030 Low emission 1 69.3 75.2 79.4
    2030 High emission 3 208.0 225.6 238.3
    2060 Low emission 2 162.5 216.0 250.6
    2060 High emission 13 1056.2 1404.2 1629.2
NEC 65+ 14.1 2030 Low emission 1 19.1 19.0 19.4
    2030 High emission 3 57.2 57.0 58.3
    2060 Low emission 2 66.4 70.3 83.6
    2060 High emission 13 431.8 456.7 543.4
External 0–64 32.5 2030 Low emission 1 27.0 29.3 30.9
    2030 High emission 3 81.0 87.9 92.8
    2060 Low emission 2 63.3 84.1 97.6
    2060 High emission 13 411.3 546.8 634.5
External 65+ 17.2 2030 Low emission 1 23.3 23.2 23.7
    2030 High emission 3 69.8 69.7 71.2
    2060 Low emission 2 81.1 85.8 102.1
    2060 High emission 13 527.4 557.8 663.7
Heat 0–64 0.7 2030 Low emission 1 0.6 0.6 0.7
    2030 High emission 3 1.8 1.9 2.0
    2060 Low emission 2 1.4 1.9 2.1
    2060 High emission 13 9.0 12.0 14.0
Heat 65+ 0.6 2030 Low emission 1 0.9 0.9 0.9
    2030 High emission 3 2.6 2.6 2.6
    2060 Low emission 2 3.0 3.2 3.8
    2060 High emission 13 19.5 20.7 24.6