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. 2015 Jul 8;17(7):e169. doi: 10.2196/jmir.3720

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©Anne G Hoen, Thomas J Hladish, Rosalind M Eggo, Michael Lenczner, John S Brownstein, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 08.07.2015.

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work, first published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research, is properly cited. The complete bibliographic information, a link to the original publication on http://www.jmir.org/, as well as this copyright and license information must be included.

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Taxonomy of epidemic curves. For each R₀, 1000 simulated epidemics were classified as either single-wave (left), multiwave starting with a community III wave followed by a community I and II wave (middle), or multiwave ending in a community III wave (right). At R₀=2.4, 554 of 1000 (55.40%) had a single wave and 446 of 1000 (44.60%) had 2 waves; of the 446 with 2 waves, community III dominated the first wave in 392 (87.89%). At R₀=1.9 and R₀=7.5, only 22.20% (222/1000) and 20.60% (206/1000) of epidemics exhibited 2 waves, respectively. Time series are superimposed so that the peaks of the largest waves align.