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. 2015 Jul 8;17(7):e169. doi: 10.2196/jmir.3720

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©Anne G Hoen, Thomas J Hladish, Rosalind M Eggo, Michael Lenczner, John S Brownstein, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 08.07.2015.

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work, first published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research, is properly cited. The complete bibliographic information, a link to the original publication on http://www.jmir.org/, as well as this copyright and license information must be included.

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The probability that one community will seed an epidemic in another sufficiently late to produce an asynchronous secondary wave is shown for epidemics spreading from community I to II (left) and community III to I (right).