Table 4.
Added predictive value of biomarkers over the clinical models
| Outcome and Clinical Modela | AUROC (95% CI) | Integrated Discrimination Improvement (95% CI) | Category Free Net Reclassification Index (95% CI) | P Valuec |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery | ||||
| LASSO | 0.76 (0.71 to 0.81) | Reference model | 0.45 | |
| Add IL-8 | 0.77 (0.72 to 0.82) | 0.013 (0.002 to 0.03)b | 0.31 (0.11 to 0.51)b | 0.30 |
| Add IL-10 | 0.77 (0.72 to 0.82) | 0.014 (0.001 to 0.03)b | 0.18 (−0.01 to 0.40) | 0.07 |
| Add TNFR I | 0.76 (0.72 to 0.82) | 0.003 (-0.003 to 0.009) | 0.14 (−0.06 to 0.33) | 0.33 |
| LASSO+IL-8 | 0.77 (0.72 to 0.82) | Reference model | 0.30 | |
| Add IL-10 | 0.77 (0.73 to 0.82) | 0.01 (−0.003 to 0.01) | 0.17 (−0.03 to 0.36) | 0.36 |
| Parsimonious model | 0.73 (0.68 to 0.78) | Reference model | 0.69 | |
| Parsimonious model+IL-8 | 0.76 (0.71 to 0.81) | 0.02 (0.01 to 0.04)b | 0.27 (0.08 to 0.47)b | 0.50 |
| Mortality | ||||
| LASSO | 0.78 (0.74 to 0.83) | Reference model | 0.08 | |
| Add IL-6 | 0.79 (0.75 to 0.83) | 0.01 (−0.002 to 0.01) | 0.10 (−0.09 to 0.29) | 0.01 |
| Add IL-8 | 0.80 (0.76 to 0.84) | 0.02 (0.01 to 0.04)b | 0.33 (0.14 to 0.52)b | 0.09 |
| Add IL-10 | 0.80 (0.76 to 0.84) | 0.02 (0.01 to 0.04)b | 0.27 (0.07 to 0.45)b | 0.07 |
| LASSO+IL-8 | 0.80 (0.76 to 0.84) | Reference model | 0.09 | |
| Add IL-10 | 0.01 (−0.001 to 0.02) | 0.14 (−0.05 to 0.33) | 0.02 | |
| Parsimonious model | 0.74 (0.70 to 0.79) | Reference model | 0.43 | |
| Parsimonious model+IL-8 | 0.78 (0.73 to 0.82) | 0.05 (0.03 to 0.07)b | 0.41(0.22 to 0.59)b | 0.17 |
LASSO, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator; TNFR, TNF receptor; AUROC, area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval.
a
All models were built using the validation cohort consisting of 423 participants.
b
P<0.05 implies a statistical improvement for that particular metric by adding biomarkers.
c
P<0.05 implies lack of fit when adding biomarkers over and above the reference model.