Table 1.
Model selection results for analyses relating African penguin chick survival to closure status. 
, expected deviance; Popt, optimism penalty applied to model; PED, penalized expected deviance (
+ Popt); ΔPED, difference in PED; s.e., standard error associated with ΔPED; ratio of ΔPED/s.e., indicating model support; AB, anchovy biomass; SB, sardine biomass; SC, sardine catch; AC, anchovy catch; C, closure status. The top five and the null model are shown. n.a., not applicable.
| model no. | model |  |
Popt | PED | ΔPED | s.e. | ΔPED/s.e. | closure effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AB + SB + C | −8.16 | 112.1 | 103.9 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | + |
| 7 | SB + C | −8.79 | 122.2 | 113.4 | 9.5 | 11.91 | 0.80 | + |
| 5 | SB + AC + C | −8.74 | 122.1 | 113.4 | 9.5 | 10.74 | 0.88 | + |
| 6 | SB + SC + C | −8.93 | 129.7 | 120.8 | 16.9 | 14.45 | 1.17 | + |
| 3 | AB + SC + C | −8.73 | 134.5 | 125.8 | 21.9 | 17.74 | 1.23 | + |
| 17 | null model | −8.90 | 215.3 | 206.4 | 102.5 | 33.48 | 3.06 | n.a. |