Table 3.

Estimated effects associated with a 1°C increase in summer temperature (mean temperature, lag 0–1) above the threshold by age and diseases in Brisbane, Australia, 1996–2004.

Disease categories/ age groups	Observed thresholdb (°C)	Percentage increase in mortality above the threshold (95% CI)a			p-Valuee
		All summers	“H” summerc	“L” summerd
Nonaccidental
All ages	28.4 (27.6–28.8)	14.14 (10.15, 18.28)	11.71 (7.03, 16.60)	21.58 (13.62, 30.11)	0.008
0–64 years	30.9 (27.1–32.1)	7.00 (–2.67, 17.63)	9.14 (–1.46, 20.87)	–7.94 (–28.31, 18.22)	0.399
≥ 65 years	27.5 (27.2–28.4)	15.62 (11.15, 20.28)	12.23 (7.12, 17.59)	28.13 (17.86, 39.29)	0.001
65–84 years	27.6 (26.9–28.7)	13.59 (7.46, 20.08)	10.42 (2.30, 9.19)	20.81 (10.00, 32.68)	0.176
≥ 85 years	27.1 (26.7–28.1)	18.18 (11.29, 25.49)	11.70 (3.29, 20.80)	40.10 (24.91, 57.13)	0.000
Cardiovascular
All ages	28.4 (27.3–29.0)	22.29 (15.87, 29.06)	16.55 (8.70, 24.98)	43.23 (30.07, 57.73)	0.000
0–64 yearsf	—	—	—	—	—
≥ 65 years	28.4 (27.3–29.1)	22.11 (15.29, 29.33)	15.97 (7.14, 25.54)	45.65 (32.34, 60.31)	0.000
65–84 years	28.8 (27.6–29.4)	25.12 (15.27, 35.82)	43.98 (20.78, 71.62)	20.02 (9.25, 31.86)	0.017
≥ 85 years	28.4 (27.1–28.9)	19.01 (9.45, 29.40)	9.35 (–2.38, 22.49)	57.38 (35.35, 82.99)	0.000
Respiratory
All ages	27.5 (26.2–29.1)	13.00 (–1.39, 29.51)	16.04 (0.64, 33.80)	–23.91 (–54.33, 26.79)	0.108
aPercentage increase in daily mortality with a 1°C temperature (mean temperature, lag 0–1) increase above the threshold (28°C). bEstimated threshold temperature (95% CI) for each mortality type and age group, to show the uncertainty around the common threshold value (28°C). c“H” summer stratum, summers with high previous winter mortality. d“L” summer stratum, summers with low previous winter mortality. ep-Value for the interaction term between previous winter mortality levels and summer temperature variable above the threshold from the model. fNot estimated due to insufficient death counts.