Table 2.
Discrete time event history model predicting likelihood of first departure for the United States 1970-2012
| Departed on First Trip without Documents |
Departed on First Trip with Documents |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | SE | β | SE | |
| Demographic Background | ||||
| Age | 0.1926 *** | 0.00785 | 0.0721 *** | 0.0175 |
| Age-squared | −0.0038 *** | 0.00013 | −0.0010 *** | 0.00023 |
| Female | −0.8467 *** | 0.0726 | 0.7394 *** | 0.1362 |
| Married | −0.1815 *** | 0.0438 | −0.2380 ** | 0.1148 |
| No. of minors in household | −0.0369 *** | 0.0109 | −0.0805 ** | 0.0299 |
| Human Capital | ||||
| Labor force experience | 0.0017 | 0.0039 | −0.0148 * | 0.00793 |
| Education | −0.0165 *** | 0.00459 | 0.1283 *** | 0.0113 |
| Agricultural job | --- | --- | ||
| Unskilled job | 0.0421 | 0.0352 | −0.2619 ** | 0.0978 |
| Skilled job | −0.3435 *** | 0.0584 | 0.0231 | 0.1358 |
| Social Capital | ||||
| Parent a U.S. Migrant | 0.3998 *** | 0.0456 | 0.0256 | 0.1149 |
| No of U. S. migrant siblings | 0.0227 * | 0.0129 | −0.0476 | 0.0312 |
| Spouse a U.S. migrant | −0.5196 *** | 0.1154 | −0.7714 ** | 0.2418 |
| No. of U.S. migrant children | 0.1796 *** | 0.037 | 0.1569 *** | 0.0434 |
| No. of U.S. born children | −2.1732*** | 0.2764 | −1.8225 *** | 0.4666 |
| Prop U.S. Migrants in Community | 0.0236 *** | 0.00114 | 0.0198 *** | 0.00347 |
| Physical Capital | ||||
| Land | −0.1641 ** | 0.0595 | −0.1750 | 0.1627 |
| Home | −0.3094 *** | 0.0400 | −0.2514 ** | 0.1043 |
| Business | −0.4019 *** | 0.0644 | −0.1985 | 0.1529 |
| Documentation | ||||
| Documented: Temporary visa | --- | 4.6272 *** | 0.1229 | |
| Documented: Legalized under IRCA | --- | −0.6433 *** | 0.1699 | |
| Undocumented: Violated tourist visa | 3.3664 *** | 0.0794 | --- | |
| U.S. Context | ||||
| Border Patrol Budget (millions of $2013) | −0.0756 | 0.0654 | −0.2765 * | 0.1628 |
| Rate of employment growth | 0.0628 *** | 0.0118 | 0.0623 * | 0.0338 |
| Residence and work visas per capita | −0.0002 * | 0.0001 | 0.0002 | 0.00026 |
| Mexican Context | ||||
| Lagged crude birth rate | −0.0270 *** | 0.007 | −0.0326 * | 0.0176 |
| Rate of GDP growth ($2005) | 0.0036 | 0.00451 | −0.0295 ** | 0.0119 |
| Homicide rate | −0.0064 | 0.00707 | 0.0053 | 0.0195 |
| Community size | ||||
| >100,000 | --- | --- | ||
| 10,000-99,999 | 0.6437 *** | 0.0538 | −1.0666 *** | 0.1183 |
| 2501-9,999 | 0.5970 *** | 0.0526 | −1.3150 *** | 0.1215 |
| <=2500 | 0.7744 *** | 0.0573 | −1.3807 *** | 0.1472 |
| Intercept | −6.0653 *** | 0.3690 | −5.1997 *** | 0.9265 |
| Likelihood Ratio | 5984.0199 *** | 1700.6557 *** | ||
| Wald | 4922.5672 *** | 2115.5368 *** | ||
| Total number of person-years | 641,586 | 193,012 | ||
+p<.10
*
p<.05
**
p<.01
***
p<.001