Table 3.
Logistic regression model predicting likelihood return from first U.S. trip within 12 months of entry 1970-2012
| Returned from First Undocumented Trip |
Returned from First Documented Trip |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | SE | β | SE | |
| Demographic Background | ||||
| Age | 0.0786 *** | 0.0195 | −0.0024 | 0.0370 |
| Age-squared | −0.0010 *** | 0.0003 | 0.0005 | 0.0004 |
| Female | −0.2541 * | 0.1530 | 0.3922 | 0.2620 |
| Married | 0.5192 *** | 0.0837 | 0.3041 | 0.1931 |
| No. of minors in household | −0.0236 | 0.0207 | −0.1128 ** | 0.0524 |
| Human Capital | ||||
| Labor force experience | −0.0062 | 0.0067 | 0.0051 | 0.0134 |
| Education | −0.0352 *** | 0.0096 | 0.1320 *** | 0.0194 |
| Agricultural job | --- | --- | ||
| Unskilled job | −0.2280 *** | 0.0657 | −0.7249 *** | 0.1545 |
| Skilled job | −0.5788 ** | 0.2201 | −1.3127 ** | 0.4588 |
| Social Capital | ||||
| Parent a U. S. Migrant | −0.1464 * | 0.0853 | 0.2094 | 0.2040 |
| No of U.S. migrant siblings | −0.0766 ** | 0.0251 | −0.0327 | 0.0560 |
| Spouse a U.S. migrant | −1.0960 *** | 0.1513 | −0.4713 | 0.3136 |
| No. of U. S. migrant children | −0.0331 | 0.0564 | 0.1270 | 0.0774 |
| No. of U. S. born children | ||||
| Prop U.S. Migrants in Community | 0.0013 | 0.0026 | 0.0161 ** | 0.0062 |
| Physical Capital | ||||
| Land | −0.2061 * | 0.1129 | −0.0771 | 0.2560 |
| Home | 0.2045 ** | 0.0758 | 0.2700 | 0.1734 |
| Business | 0.1991 * | 0.1145 | 0.3802 * | 0.2220 |
| Documentation | ||||
| Documented: Temporary visa | --- | 4.0763 *** | 0.2276 | |
| Documented: Legalized under IRCA | --- | −1.7149 *** | 0.4757 | |
| Undocumented: Violated tourist visa | 0.2962 ** | 0.1449 | --- | |
| U.S. Context | ||||
| Border Patrol Budget (millions of $2013) | −0.5771 *** | 0.1640 | −0.2939 | 0.2918 |
| Rate of employment growth | −0.0395 * | 0.0230 | 0.0787 | 0.0646 |
| Residence and work visas per capita | −0.0003 | 0.0002 | 0.0002 | 0.0004 |
| Mexican Context | ||||
| Lagged crude birth rate | −0.0106 | 0.0146 | −0.0524 * | 0.0298 |
| Rate of GDP growth ($2005) | 0.0089 | 0.0091 | −0.0084 | 0.0219 |
| Homicide rate | 0.0361 * | 0.017 | 0.0207 | 0.0377 |
| Community size | ||||
| >100,000 | --- | --- | ||
| 10,000-99,999 | 0.2430 ** | 0.1077 | −0.8475 *** | 0.2222 |
| 2501-9,999 | 0.0342 | 0.1064 | −0.8528 *** | 0.2150 |
| <=2500 | 0.1382 | 0.1145 | −1.4056 *** | 0.2666 |
| Intercept | −1.4657 * | 0.8351 | −2.0891 | 1.6134 |
| Likelihood Ratio | 386.207 *** | 693.9355 *** | ||
| Wald | 341.6675 *** | 527.5618 *** | ||
| Total number of person-years | 5,159 | 5,150 | ||
+p<.10
*
p<.05
**
p<.01
***
p<.001