Table 4.
Discrete time event history model predicting likelihood of additional departure for the United States 1970-2012
| Took Additional Trip Without Documents |
Took Additional Trip with Documents |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | SE | β | SE | |
| Demographic Background | ||||
| Age | 0.0668 *** | 0.0122 | 0.0227 * | 0.0136 |
| Age-squared | −0.0011 *** | 0.0002 | −0.0003 ** | 0.0002 |
| Female | −0.3956 ** | 0.1302 | 0.0580 | 0.1279 |
| Married | 0.1341 ** | 0.0547 | 0.1953 ** | 0.0649 |
| No. of minors in household | 0.0479 *** | 0.0105 | −0.0690 *** | 0.0125 |
| Human Capital | ||||
| Labor force experience | −0.0100 ** | 0.0047 | −0.0036 | 0.0047 |
| Education | −0.0484 *** | 0.0066 | 0.0651 *** | 0.0068 |
| Agricultural job | --- | --- | ||
| Unskilled job | −0.2373 *** | 0.0396 | −0.6075 *** | 0.0459 |
| Skilled job | −0.7992 *** | 0.1589 | −0.8572 *** | 0.1304 |
| Cumulative U.S. experience | −0.0158 *** | 0.0006 | −0.0045 *** | 0.0004 |
| No of previous U. S. trips | 0.1772 *** | 0.0057 | 0.1786 *** | 0.0048 |
| Social Capital | ||||
| Parent a U.S. Migrant | 0.0500 | 0.0430 | 0.4162 *** | 0.0463 |
| No of U. S. migrant siblings | −0.0190 * | 0.0113 | 0.0915 *** | 0.0107 |
| Spouse a U.S. migrant | −0.8525 *** | 0.0708 | −0.2224 *** | 0.0581 |
| No. of U.S. migrant children | −0.2319 *** | 0.0248 | −0.0752 *** | 0.0176 |
| No. of U.S. born children | −0.4398 *** | 0.0649 | −0.1007 ** | 0.0364 |
| Prop U.S. Migrants in Community | 0.0113 *** | 0.0015 | 0.0244 *** | 0.0018 |
| Physical Capital | ||||
| Land | −0.0649 | 0.0559 | 0.2735 *** | 0.0544 |
| Home | −0.0956 ** | 0.0433 | 0.4206 *** | 0.0489 |
| Business | 0.0862 | 0.0696 | 0.0732 | 0.0674 |
| Documentation | ||||
| Documented: Temporary visa | --- | 2.2919 *** | 0.1355 | |
| Documented: Legalized under IRCA | --- | 0.5606 *** | 0.0433 | |
| Undocumented: Violated tourist visa | 1.4008 *** | 0.1047 | --- | |
| U.S. Context | ||||
| Border Patrol Budget (millions of $2013) | −2.2199 *** | 0.1637 | 0.5335 *** | 0.0769 |
| Rate of employment growth | −0.0015 | 0.0130 | 0.1065 *** | 0.0173 |
| Residence and work visas per capita | −0.0014 *** | 0.0001 | 0.0015 *** | 0.0001 |
| Mexican Context | ||||
| Lagged crude birth rate | −0.0314 ** | 0.0109 | 0.0840 *** | 0.0092 |
| Rate of GDP growth ($2005) | −0.0063 | 0.0052 | −0.0231 *** | 0.0062 |
| Homicide rate | −0.0570 *** | 0.0106 | 0.0954 *** | 0.0105 |
| Community size | ||||
| >100,000 | --- | --- | ||
| 10,000-99,999 | 0.8240 *** | 0.0947 | 0.6248 *** | 0.1058 |
| 2501-9,999 | 0.8253 *** | 0.0968 | −0.1266 | 0.1128 |
| <=2500 | 0.7761 *** | 0.1007 | 0.4676 *** | 0.1136 |
| Intercept | 0.2758 | 0.6202 | −10.9758 *** | 0.5107 |
| Likelihood Ratio | 7136.4133 *** | 8271.8459 *** | ||
| Wald | 3623.1317 *** | 5450.1343 *** | ||
| Total numbe r of person-years | 43,103 | 42,878 | ||
+p<.10
*
p<.05
**
p<.01
***
p<.001