Table 5.
Logistic regression model predicting likelihood return from additional U.S. trip within 12 months of entry 1970-2012
| Returned from Additional Undocumented Trip |
Returned from Additional Documented Trip |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | SE | β | SE | |
| Demographic Background | ||||
| Age | 0.0768 *** | 0.0177 | 0.0591 ** | 0.0241 |
| Age-squared | −0.0009 *** | 0.0002 | −0.0003 | 0.0003 |
| Female | −0.5232 ** | 0.1814 | 1.0192 *** | 0.1999 |
| Married | 0.3486 *** | 0.0817 | 0.6084 *** | 0.1488 |
| No. of minors in household | −0.0024 | 0.0142 | −0.0637 ** | 0.0234 |
| Human Capital | ||||
| Labor force experience | 0.0179 ** | 0.0064 | −0.0020 | 0.0087 |
| Education | −0.0375 *** | 0.0090 | 0.1333 *** | 0.0131 |
| Agricultural job | --- | --- | ||
| Unskilled job | 0.2637 *** | 0.0544 | −0.9291 *** | 0.0947 |
| Skilled job | −0.3357 | 0.2124 | −1.2574 *** | 0.3276 |
| Cumulative U.S. experience | −0.0132 *** | 0.0009 | 0.0021 ** | 0.0008 |
| No of previous U.S. trips | −0.1165 *** | 0.0113 | −0.0626 *** | 0.0103 |
| Social Capital | ||||
| Parent a U.S. Migrant | −0.2379 *** | 0.0639 | −0.4877 *** | 0.1113 |
| No of U.S. migrant siblings | −0.0525 ** | 0.0169 | −0.0002 | 0.026 |
| Spouse a U.S. migrant | −0.9191 *** | 0.1197 | −0.4897 ** | 0.1538 |
| No. of U.S. migrant children | −0.0091 | 0.0302 | 0.1001 ** | 0.0319 |
| No. of U.S. born children | −0.4792 *** | 0.1288 | 0.2525 ** | 0.0851 |
| Prop U.S. Migrants in Community | −0.0092 *** | 0.0022 | −0.0040 | 0.0035 |
| Physical Capital | ||||
| Land | −0.0809 | 0.0706 | 0.6973 *** | 0.0973 |
| Home | −0.0939 | 0.0582 | −0.0680 | 0.1007 |
| Business | 0.0712 | 0.0863 | 0.1513 | 0.1191 |
| Documentation | ||||
| Documented: Temporary visa | --- | 2.5648 *** | 0.1563 | |
| Documented: Legalized under IRCA | --- | 0.5687 *** | 0.0937 | |
| Undocumented: Violated tourist visa | 0.4272 ** | 0.1334 | --- | |
| U.S. Context | ||||
| Border Patrol Budget (millions of $2013) | −0.2749 ** | 0.1090 | 0.1514 | 0.1181 |
| Rate of employment growth | −0.0570 ** | 0.0199 | −0.0328 | 0.0375 |
| Residence and work visas per capita | −0.0010 *** | 0.0002 | −0.0001 | 0.0002 |
| Mexican Context | ||||
| Lagged crude birth rate | −0.0289 * | 0.0114 | −0.0476 ** | 0.0163 |
| Rate of GDP growth ($2005) | 0.0118 | 0.0076 | 0.0030 | 0.0130 |
| Homicide rate | 0.0011 | 0.0126 | −0.0265 * | 0.0159 |
| Community size | ||||
| >100,000 | --- | --- | ||
| 10,000-99,999 | 0.0655 | 0.1184 | −0.6134 *** | 0.1883 |
| 2501-9,999 | 0.1669 | 0.1202 | −0.0165 | 0.1841 |
| <=2500 | −0.0758 | 0.1264 | −0.6077 *** | 0.1973 |
| Intercept | 0.0032 | 0.6582 | −2.4758 ** | 0.9024 |
| Likelihood Ratio | 2195.4401 *** | 1403.7323 *** | ||
| Wald | 1283.0589 *** | 1120.2678 *** | ||
| Total number of person-years | 12,402 | 12,392 | ||
+p<.10
*
p<.05
**
p<.01
***
p<.001