Table 3. Posterior medians, 95% credibility limits, and 90% credibility limits for temporal trends in radar counts of Marbled Murrelets at 58 sites in six Conservation Regions in British Columbia, 1996–2013.

P(decline) is the probability of decline, computed as the proportion of model runs in which the rate parameter for the site was negative (see Methods). Regions are in italics. Cases where the 95% or 90% credibility interval did not overlap with zero are designated in bold font.

Region/Site	Median	Lower 95% CL	Upper 95% CL	Lower 90% CL	Upper 90% CL	P(decline)
Coast-wide	-0.016	-0.032	0.0001	-0.030	-0.003	0.97
Haida Gwaii	-0.033	-0.074	0.002	-0.067	-0.004	0.97
Bigsby	-0.033	-0.121	0.038	-0.106	0.028	0.81
Botany	-0.067	-0.172	0.031	-0.156	0.016	0.9
Dawson Inlet	0.024	-0.066	0.12	-0.052	0.104	0.3
Fairfax	-0.141	-0.275	-0.014	-0.255	-0.031	0.99
Huston	-0.118	-0.2	-0.019	-0.189	-0.035	0.99
Hutton	-0.085	-0.189	0.014	-0.172	-0.001	0.95
Klunkwoi	0.082	0.007	0.149	0.019	0.139	0.02
Lagoon	0	-0.09	0.082	-0.075	0.069	0.5
Long	-0.032	-0.102	0.026	-0.091	0.017	0.85
Port Chanal	0.003	-0.024	0.033	-0.019	0.028	0.4
Tartu	-0.02	-0.107	0.053	-0.091	0.041	0.71
Windy Bay	-0.008	-0.075	0.049	-0.061	0.039	0.61
North Mainland Coast	0.014	-0.013	0.043	-0.009	0.038	0.16
Aaltanhash	0.022	-0.078	0.105	-0.063	0.096	0.33
Brim River	0.01	-0.074	0.088	-0.061	0.076	0.41
East Inlet	0	-0.082	0.085	-0.068	0.070	0.5
Gilttoyees	0.007	-0.074	0.086	-0.061	0.073	0.43
Green	-0.011	-0.083	0.055	-0.071	0.044	0.63
Khutze	0.046	-0.019	0.098	-0.008	0.091	0.08
Khutzeymateen River	0.036	-0.034	0.116	-0.023	0.104	0.17
Kwinamass River	0.019	-0.017	0.082	-0.012	0.069	0.16
Toon River	-0.001	-0.051	0.048	-0.041	0.039	0.52
West and North Vancouver Island	0	-0.021	0.022	-0.017	0.018	0.49
Bedwell	-0.016	-0.054	0.025	-0.048	0.018	0.78
Bulson	-0.017	-0.053	0.026	-0.048	0.019	0.79
Kelsey Bay	0.035	-0.054	0.099	-0.039	0.091	0.21
Klaskish	-0.015	-0.072	0.033	-0.062	0.025	0.73
Megin	-0.02	-0.067	0.023	-0.059	0.016	0.81
Moyeha	0.012	-0.022	0.052	-0.017	0.046	0.25
Nitinat	-0.031	-0.122	0.044	-0.106	0.032	0.78
Power	-0.002	-0.051	0.05	-0.042	0.041	0.53
Tahsis	-0.003	-0.073	0.072	-0.063	0.060	0.53
Tahsish	0	-0.039	0.039	-0.032	0.032	0.51
Toquart	0.004	-0.048	0.065	-0.039	0.053	0.43
Watta	0.045	-0.002	0.086	0.006	0.080	0.03
Central Mainland Coast	0.015	-0.008	0.037	-0.005	0.034	0.1
Kwalate	-0.02	-0.102	0.051	-0.088	0.041	0.7
Kakweikan	0.031	-0.02	0.077	-0.012	0.071	0.12
Wakeman	-0.002	-0.07	0.058	-0.058	0.049	0.52
Wannock	0.008	-0.054	0.059	-0.043	0.052	0.39
Kilbella	-0.006	-0.055	0.035	-0.046	0.029	0.62
Koeye	0.039	-0.024	0.089	-0.014	0.082	0.11
Kwatna	0.015	-0.021	0.055	-0.015	0.049	0.21
Skowquiltz	0.066	-0.013	0.11	0.001	0.105	0.05
Ellerslie	0.043	-0.008	0.093	-0.001	0.086	0.05
Nekite	-0.013	-0.129	0.092	-0.107	0.073	0.6
East Vancouver Island	-0.086	-0.126	-0.028	-0.120	-0.039	1
Lake Cowichan	-0.102	-0.145	-0.006	-0.141	-0.026	0.98
Upper Campbell	0.031	-0.046	0.114	-0.035	0.101	0.22
Comox Lake	-0.077	-0.132	0.009	-0.125	-0.006	0.96
Nanaimo Lakes	-0.207	-0.285	-0.105	-0.272	-0.122	1
Sooke Lake	-0.155	-0.231	-0.023	-0.219	-0.047	0.99
South Mainland Coast	-0.031	-0.058	-0.005	-0.053	-0.009	0.99
Brem	-0.003	-0.052	0.046	-0.044	0.038	0.55
Brittain	-0.103	-0.145	-0.043	-0.139	-0.053	1
Deserted	-0.092	-0.169	-0.002	-0.158	-0.016	0.98
Forbes	-0.046	-0.097	0.019	-0.090	0.008	0.92
Orford	0.022	-0.038	0.079	-0.028	0.070	0.24
Quatam	-0.036	-0.097	0.028	-0.088	0.018	0.86
Skwawka	0.044	-0.023	0.095	-0.011	0.088	0.09
Southgate	-0.09	-0.159	-0.006	-0.149	-0.020	0.98
Toba	-0.002	-0.054	0.055	-0.046	0.045	0.52
Vancouver	-0.016	-0.085	0.055	-0.075	0.044	0.66